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Investing.com - Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) maintained its Underperform rating and $23.00 price target on PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) stock, predicting significant earnings misses for the second quarter of 2025. The target represents significant downside from the current price of $27.90, with analyst targets ranging from $12 to $26.
The investment firm expects PBF Energy to miss consensus EBITDA estimates by 50% and EPS estimates by 21% for Q2 2025. InvestingPro data shows 5 analysts have recently revised their earnings downward, with the company already reporting negative EBITDA of $853.8M in the last twelve months. Despite anticipated sequential improvement in the refining segment driven by stronger crack spreads, higher volumes, and lower operating expenses, Mizuho still forecasts negative segment EBITDA.
Mizuho acknowledged that PBF Energy’s medium-term outlook appears more positive, citing potential widening of crude differentials and a tighter California market as favorable factors for the company.
However, the firm noted that crude differentials will likely widen only gradually, and PBF Energy continues working to bring its Martinez facility back to full capacity.
Mizuho concluded that it will take "a couple of quarters" for PBF Energy to reach its full earnings potential, supporting the firm’s decision to maintain its Underperform rating and $23 per share price target based on net asset value. According to InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, PBF Energy appears undervalued at current levels, though the company faces significant challenges with weak gross profit margins and substantial debt burden.
In other recent news, PBF Energy reported a first-quarter 2025 adjusted net loss of $3.09 per share, missing the forecasted loss of $2.17 per share. However, the company’s revenue surpassed expectations, reaching $7.07 billion against the anticipated $6.83 billion. UBS analysts upgraded PBF Energy’s stock rating from ’Neutral’ to ’Buy’ and increased the price target to $26.00, citing improvements in refining fundamentals. Conversely, Moody’s Ratings downgraded PBF Holding Company LLC’s Corporate Family Rating to Ba3 from Ba2, pointing to increased debt and financial leverage concerns. PBF Energy is also set to receive $250 million in insurance proceeds in the second quarter of 2025, which is expected to enhance cash flow. The company plans to liquidate 2 million barrels of inventory during the same period. Additionally, PBF Logistics (NYSE:PBFX) arranged to sell two terminal facilities for $175 million, with the transaction expected to close in the latter half of the year. Finally, PBF Energy’s shareholders elected the Board of Directors and approved KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025.
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