Mizuho sets $23 target on Diversified Energy stock

Published 10/04/2025, 10:56
Mizuho sets $23 target on Diversified Energy stock

On Thursday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities initiated coverage on shares of Diversified Energy Company (NYSE:DEC) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $23.00, representing a potential 100% upside from the current price of $11.50. The firm's analysts believe that Diversified Energy presents a unique investment opportunity as the sole public equity market choice for those interested in the growing PDP roll-up strategy in the U.S. Shale sector. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for DEC range from $14.50 to $29.00, with a strong consensus recommendation of 1.38 (Strong Buy).

Diversified Energy's strategy concentrates on maximizing production and cash flows from mature, lower-risk wells across five key areas, including the Appalachia, Western Anadarko, and Permian regions. Mizuho's analysts underscored the company's ability to generate distinct cash flow, which is further bolstered by its ancillary businesses such as midstream operations, plug and abandonment (P&A) operations, and coal mine methane (CMM).

The financial approach of Diversified Energy also received praise for its prudence, particularly in the context of cash returns to shareholders. The company's dividend yield currently stands at 7.06%, with a consistent track record of maintaining dividend payments for nine consecutive years, as highlighted by InvestingPro analysis. This approach distinguishes DEC from smaller gas producers and is seen as a benefit for investors.

However, the analysts at Mizuho also pointed out certain risks associated with investing in Diversified Energy. These include the company's higher-than-average balance sheet leverage, a growth strategy heavily reliant on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and financial exposure due to a substantial asset retirement obligation.

Despite these risks, Mizuho views the current share price levels as an attractive entry point for investors, especially considering the potential for higher natural gas prices. The Outperform rating and $23 price target reflect the firm's confidence in Diversified Energy's prospects for robust cash generation and shareholder returns. Net income is expected to grow this year, with analysts forecasting positive earnings of $4.30 per share for FY2025.

In other recent news, Diversified Energy Company PLC announced its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.515, which slightly exceeded the forecast of $0.51. However, the company reported a revenue of $268 million, falling short of the expected $273.5 million. Despite this revenue miss, the company demonstrated robust performance with a total annual revenue of $950 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $472 million, maintaining a 50% margin. Diversified Energy also generated a free cash flow of $211 million and reduced its net debt by $205 million. Recent strategic acquisitions, including Summit Natural Resources and Maverick Natural Resources, have positioned the company for future growth. The company expects significant growth in its coal mine methane revenue and has projected a combined free cash flow of $420 million for 2025. Additionally, Diversified Energy announced a partnership with FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) and Tesiak to provide net-zero power solutions for data centers. These developments reflect the company's strategic direction and commitment to growth through accretive acquisitions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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