Moderna stock price target lowered to $12 at Leerink on CMV vaccine failure

Published 23/10/2025, 10:22
© Reuters

Investing.com - Leerink Partners lowered its price target on Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to $12 from $16 while maintaining an Underperform rating after the company’s cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine failed in a Phase 3 trial. The biotech company, currently trading at $26.85, has seen its stock decline over 51% in the past year, though InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock may be undervalued at current levels.

The CMVictory trial of mRNA-1647 did not meet its primary endpoint of preventing CMV infection in seronegative females of childbearing age, with vaccine efficacy ranging from 6-23% depending on case definition, well below management’s expectations of approximately 50%.

Moderna will discontinue its congenital CMV development program as a result of the trial failure, though it will continue evaluating mRNA-1647 in an ongoing Phase 2 trial for bone-marrow transplant patients.

The company stated that this setback will not impact its 2025 financial guidance or its 2028 breakeven guidance, noting that the CMV vaccine was expected to have minimal revenue contribution and would have been cash-flow negative in 2028 due to market-building and launch expenses.

Leerink reduced its probability of success for mRNA-1647 to 0% from 35% and adjusted its near-term operating expense projections to reflect research and development and selling, general and administrative savings.

In other recent news, Moderna announced that its cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate, mRNA-1647, failed to meet the primary efficacy endpoint in a Phase 3 trial. The trial, which included about 7,500 women aged 16-40 across 13 countries, showed vaccine efficacy ranging from 6% to 23%, leading the company to discontinue its congenital CMV clinical development program. Meanwhile, Brookline Capital Markets reiterated its Buy rating for Moderna, citing strong clinical data for the company’s updated COVID-19 vaccine, mNEXSPIKE/mRNA-1283. This vaccine demonstrated a greater than 16-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against the LP.8.1 variant, which Brookline described as remarkably strong. Additionally, Moderna presented new data on its cancer antigen therapy, mRNA-4359, at the ESMO Conference. Needham maintained its Hold rating on Moderna following this presentation. These developments reflect a mixed landscape for Moderna, with advancements in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy juxtaposed against setbacks in its CMV program.

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