Moderna stock price target lowered to $40 at UBS after CMV vaccine failure

Investing.com - UBS has lowered its price target on Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to $40.00 from $70.00 while maintaining a Buy rating following the company’s announcement that its CMV vaccine candidate failed in Phase 3 trials. The stock, currently trading at $26.85, has declined over 51% in the past year. According to InvestingPro data, Moderna’s stock movements have been notably volatile, with analyst targets ranging widely from $16 to $198.

The price target reduction comes after Moderna revealed on October 22 that its mRNA-1647 vaccine for congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of preventing CMV infection in a pivotal Phase 3 study.

Moderna will discontinue its congenital CMV development program as a result of the trial failure, prompting UBS to lower its probability of success estimate for mRNA-1647 to 0% from the previous 75%.

UBS now forecasts Moderna’s operating expenses to reach $3.7 billion in 2028, noting that a key investor question will be whether the company can achieve cash break-even that year, which the firm believes is achievable though additional R&D cuts might be necessary.

Despite the setback, UBS continues to see upside potential from Moderna’s oncology pipeline, particularly highlighting the fully enrolled Phase 3 study of intismeran autogene (partnered with Merck) with results expected in 2026, as well as a potential Phase 2 proof-of-concept readout from mRNA-4359 in advanced solid tumors that same year.

In other recent news, Moderna has faced significant challenges with its cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate, mRNA-1647. The vaccine failed to meet its primary efficacy endpoint in a Phase 3 trial, showing an efficacy range of only 6% to 23% against CMV infection in seronegative females, far below the expected 50%. As a result, Moderna announced it would discontinue its congenital CMV clinical development program. Following this development, Leerink Partners lowered its price target for Moderna to $12 from $16, while maintaining an Underperform rating.

In contrast, Moderna received positive feedback from Brookline Capital Markets, which reiterated its Buy rating and a $198 price target after the company presented strong clinical data for its refrigerator-stable COVID-19 vaccine. This vaccine, mNEXSPIKE/mRNA-1283, demonstrated a more than 16-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against the LP.8.1 variant. Additionally, Needham maintained its Hold rating on Moderna after the company shared new data on its cancer antigen therapy, mRNA-4359, at the ESMO Conference. These developments highlight the mixed outcomes Moderna is currently navigating.

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