Morgan Stanley cuts DLocal stock rating, lowers target to $10

Published 28/02/2025, 09:48
Morgan Stanley cuts DLocal stock rating, lowers target to $10

On Friday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded DLocal Limited (NASDAQ: DLO) stock from Overweight to Equalweight, adjusting the price target to $10.00 from the previous $11.00. The firm’s analysts cited weaker-than-expected Total (EPA:TTEF) Payment Volume (TPV) results, which fell short of consensus expectations by a significant margin, as a key reason for the downgrade. Despite the downgrade, InvestingPro data shows DLocal has demonstrated strong momentum with a 54% surge over the past six months and maintains a "GOOD" financial health score.Want deeper insights? InvestingPro offers 8 additional exclusive tips for DLocal, along with comprehensive financial analysis in the Pro Research Report.

Although TPV showed strength, the revenue and gross profit for DLocal matched the sell-side consensus, which was a positive note. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 39.5% and achieved 14.7% revenue growth in the last twelve months. However, the company’s revenue take rate and gross take rate saw a sequential contraction, performing below consensus. Additionally, the company’s expenses increased more than anticipated, surpassing revenue growth.

Morgan Stanley also pointed out that DLocal’s guidance for 2025 appears slightly softer compared to consensus expectations. Despite these challenges, during the earnings conference call, DLocal’s management emphasized the ongoing growth opportunities presented by the digitalization of consumption in emerging markets (EM). They also noted the company’s potential to increase its share of wallet and expand with merchants into new markets and products.

The management team highlighted DLocal’s competitive advantages, which they believe will continue to attract new clients and increase share of wallet despite the intensifying competition in the market. This sentiment was expressed as a positive aspect of the company’s outlook during the conference call, reflecting confidence in its strategic position.

In other recent news, Dlocal Ltd reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, which showed a miss in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to market expectations. The company posted an EPS of $0.10, falling short of the projected $0.14, and its revenue was $204.5 million, slightly below the anticipated $204.88 million. Despite the earnings miss, Dlocal demonstrated strong operational growth with a Total Payment Volume (TPV) of $26 billion, marking a 45% year-over-year increase. The company also reported a gross profit of $295 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $189 million, maintaining a robust margin of 64%.

In terms of company expansion, Dlocal has secured nine new licenses globally, which could enhance its regulatory compliance and competitive positioning. Analysts from firms such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have shown interest in the company’s strategies, particularly regarding foreign exchange risks and market share expansion. Dlocal’s CEO, Pedro Arndt, emphasized the company’s strategic focus on emerging markets and technological innovation to drive future growth. These developments reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its market presence and operational capabilities amidst competitive and regulatory challenges.

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