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On Monday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts downgraded Evercore Partners stock, a company traded under (NYSE:EVR), from Overweight to Equalweight and significantly reduced the price target to $173.00 from the previous $306.00. The downgrade reflects concerns about the company’s exposure to the current downturn in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, which is a critical revenue source for Evercore.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed out that approximately two-thirds of Evercore’s revenues are derived from M&A fees, leaving the firm vulnerable to the observed weakening in the market, particularly in large-cap strategic deals where the company has previously excelled. Despite Evercore’s involvement in a variety of deal sizes and types, the analysts predict that other areas of business, such as restructuring or equities trading, are unlikely to compensate for the shortfall in M&A fees.
The first quarter of the year showed a steep decline in announced deal volumes for Evercore, dropping 62% year-over-year, marking one of the weakest performances in its peer group. Morgan Stanley’s analysis also anticipates a modest increase in the company’s compensation ratio, which is expected to rise by 30 basis points year-over-year to 66% in 2025. This increase is attributed to Evercore’s compensation philosophy, which is closely tied to performance, as well as a 26% growth in managing director headcount since 2021, as reported at the end of the fourth quarter in 2024.
The report by Morgan Stanley also highlighted potential risks, including the possibility of Evercore’s compensation ratio climbing higher if the unfavorable conditions in the deal market persist or if the United States economy enters a recession. These factors could further strain the company’s financial performance and justify the lowered expectations represented by the downgrade and reduced price target.
In other recent news, Evercore Partners Inc . reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $3.41, compared to the forecasted $3.04. The company also exceeded revenue predictions, reporting $975.33 million against the anticipated $906.67 million. For the full year, Evercore’s adjusted net revenues rose by 23% to $3 billion, driven by a diversified revenue base. Additionally, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised Evercore’s price target to $339, maintaining an Outperform rating, citing robust performance in advisory services. Despite some concerns over compensation expenses, the firm remains optimistic about Evercore’s positioning amid a gradual market recovery. In other developments, Sitetracker Inc. is considering a sale that could value the company at around $1 billion, with Evercore Inc. involved in locating a potential buyer. This move comes as Sitetracker aims to leverage its established infrastructure management solutions.
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