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On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded National Storage Affiliates Trust (NYSE: NYSE:NSA) stock rating from Equalweight to Underweight and reduced its price target from $39.00 to $30.00. The firm’s analysts pointed to the company’s performance challenges, which have persisted over the past three years, as a key reason for the downgrade. According to InvestingPro data, NSA currently trades at $34.15 with a high P/E ratio of 57.68, though analysis suggests the stock may be undervalued. The company maintains a FAIR financial health score, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report.
National Storage Affiliates Trust has been underperforming compared to its peers, with a significant occupancy decline that has ranged from -200 basis points (bps) to -500 bps year-over-year for the past 2.5 years. This decline is more pronounced than that of its competitors, which have seen ranges from flat to -200 bps year-over-year. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have expressed concern that the company’s 2025 guidance appears to be at risk, and they anticipate a potential cut in the second quarter of 2025. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company has maintained its dividend growth track record for 10 consecutive years, currently offering a substantial 6.68% yield.
The firm has adjusted its earnings estimates for National Storage Affiliates Trust for the years 2025 and 2026, reducing them by -0.4% and -0.8%, respectively. These revised estimates fall below the consensus and the company’s own guidance. For 2025, Morgan Stanley’s estimated earnings of $2.28 are -1.7% below the consensus of $2.32 and -2.6% below the company’s guidance of $2.34.
The analysts also highlighted concerns regarding the company’s dividend sustainability. In the first quarter of 2025, the dividend payout ratio as a percentage of adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) increased to over 107%, up from 95% in the fourth quarter of 2024. With the expectation that the payout ratio will remain near 100% for the years 2025 and 2026, there is uncertainty about the dividend’s future if earnings do not improve.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley noted that National Storage Affiliates Trust’s leverage is considerably higher than its peers, with net debt and preferred equity to EBITDA at 8x, compared to the 4-5.5x range of its competitors. This elevated leverage may restrict the company’s ability to grow externally and limit its capacity to acquire new assets for faster growth. InvestingPro metrics confirm this concern, showing a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.98 and a current ratio of 0.66, indicating potential liquidity challenges. For deeper insights into NSA’s financial position and future prospects, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report, part of InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis of over 1,400 US stocks.
In other recent news, National Storage Affiliates Trust reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.10, which fell short of the expected $0.15. Despite the EPS miss, the company achieved a revenue of $188.35 million, surpassing the forecast of $184.09 million. The company’s core funds from operations per share declined by 10% year-over-year, and same-store revenues fell by 3%. Additionally, same-store net operating income (NOI) decreased by 5.7% compared to the previous year. Analysts noted that the housing market challenges continue to impact demand, affecting the company’s performance. National Storage Affiliates also reported a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.9x, with expectations to reduce this in the second half of the year. The company remains optimistic about future performance, aiming to achieve $200 million in asset dispositions and focusing on markets with operational efficiencies. CEO Dave Kramer expressed cautious optimism, highlighting improvements in contract rents and a better supply outlook.
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