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On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded Sunrun shares, moving from an ’Overweight’ to an ’Equalweight’ rating, and significantly reduced the price target to $11 from the previous $27. The adjustment reflects the firm’s concern over the potential for the company’s growth and cash generation amid various market challenges. InvestingPro data reveals the stock has already declined over 50% in the past six months, with current trading at $6.88.
Stifel analysts cited multiple factors influencing their decision, including the consumer-focused nature of Sunrun’s products, the impact of high-interest rates on unit economics, and the unpredictability of the policy landscape. These elements are believed to pose downside risks to the company’s growth trajectory. Financial metrics from InvestingPro support these concerns, showing a significant debt burden with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.13 and negative free cash flow of $3.47 billion.
Contrary to some of its peers, Sunrun does not face immediate liquidity or balance sheet issues. However, Morgan Stanley highlighted that in a scenario where unit economics deteriorate and growth decelerates significantly, Sunrun’s cash generation targets could be negatively impacted, potentially leading to a decline in the company’s stock value.
Despite the downgrade, Morgan Stanley’s new price target still implies a 60% upside from the current trading level. The firm acknowledged that while there is a substantial potential gain to their revised target, the lack of clear positive catalysts and broader economic headwinds might restrict the stock’s performance in achieving the long-term discounted cash flow (DCF)-derived equity value previously anticipated.
In other recent news, Sunrun Inc (NASDAQ:RUN). has seen a series of significant developments impacting investor sentiment. Barclays (LON:BARC) analyst Christine Cho reaffirmed an Equalweight rating for Sunrun, maintaining a $15 price target, while highlighting the company’s expected cash generation and debt reduction strategies. Meanwhile, Truist Securities analyst Jordan Levy revised Sunrun’s price target to $6, citing challenges in the solar sector, including tariffs and policy uncertainties. Levy maintained a Hold rating, noting a cautious outlook on the company’s financial performance.
Jefferies analyst Julian Dumoulin-Smith also adjusted Sunrun’s price target to $7, maintaining a Hold rating due to uncertainties surrounding the Inflation Reduction Act and potential economic recession concerns. Jefferies had previously downgraded Sunrun from Buy to Hold, with a price target cut to $8, reflecting ongoing challenges in the residential solar market.
In corporate news, Sunrun announced the resignation of Manjula Talreja from its board of directors, effective April 4, 2025. The company stated that Talreja’s departure was not due to any disagreements with Sunrun’s policies or leadership. Consequently, Sunrun’s board has been reduced from nine to eight directors. These developments indicate a period of strategic reassessment and adaptation for Sunrun as it navigates market and policy challenges.
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