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On Thursday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Panos Ellinas upgraded Avanza Bank Holding AB (AZA:SS) stock rating from Underweight to Overweight, substantially raising the price target to SEK370.00 from the previous SEK200.00. The upgrade reflects Morgan Stanley’s confidence in Avanza’s business model, which is strongly positioned in Sweden’s private banking and brokerage sectors.
Ellinas highlighted the potential for Avanza to grow within private banking and occupational pensions, areas that the management has strategically focused on. He also noted the possibility for the bank to increase its share-of-wallet with existing customers, benefiting from wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfers.
The analyst pointed out that the Swedish retail market presents an attractive setup for re-risking, bolstered by the country’s lower interest rates compared to other markets, with policy rates at 2.25% versus 2.75% in the EU and 4.5% in the UK. This environment, according to Ellinas, supports a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenues (excluding net interest income) of around 15% from 2024 to 2027, which outpaces the consensus estimate of approximately 11%.
Morgan Stanley’s estimates for Avanza’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2026 are 3-5% higher than the consensus, indicating a more optimistic outlook on the bank’s financial performance. Furthermore, Avanza’s trading multiples are considered undemanding by Ellinas, who points out that the bank’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 is projected at 22.3 times and 19.4 times for 2027, which is below the long-term average of 24.7 times.
The upgrade by Morgan Stanley suggests a strong belief in Avanza’s ability to capitalize on its market position and strategic initiatives, which could lead to significant growth and an enhanced valuation for the Swedish bank in the coming years.
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