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On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) demonstrated increased confidence in Coupang Inc (NYSE:CPNG), with analyst Seyon Park raising the price target from $27.00 to $32.00 while sustaining an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm has also named Coupang as its new Top Pick, citing the company’s continued strong performance and resilience to tariff risks. This optimism appears well-founded, as InvestingPro data shows the stock has delivered impressive returns, with a 24.89% gain year-to-date and is currently trading near its 52-week high of $27.73.
Coupang’s business model, known as the Product Commerce flywheel, is credited with driving the company’s success. This strategy focuses on delivering superior service, which in turn attracts more traffic, enhances selection, scales up operations, and improves margins. The benefits of this approach are then passed back to consumers, creating a cycle of positive reinforcement. Despite competitors’ attempts to keep pace, Coupang’s market share has grown steadily.
Morgan Stanley’s analysts are optimistic about Coupang’s ability to meet its growth targets amidst market uncertainties, particularly as the company stands to gain from a weakening U.S. dollar. The firm projects a 41% growth in adjusted EBITDA for the year, spurred by an increase in Product Commerce margins to 9% in 2025, a 150 basis points rise year-over-year. Current InvestingPro data supports this growth trajectory, showing robust revenue growth of 20.88% and an EBITDA of $1.064 billion in the last twelve months. With 13 additional exclusive ProTips and a comprehensive Pro Research Report available, investors can gain deeper insights into Coupang’s financial health and growth prospects. This margin expansion is expected to contribute an additional $700 million to adjusted EBITDA, more than compensating for anticipated higher losses from Developing Offerings.
Valuation-wise, Coupang’s position requires careful analysis. While the stock has seen a 23% rise year-to-date, InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently trading above its Fair Value, with a current EV/EBITDA multiple of 44.95x and P/E ratio of 197.14x. The company maintains strong fundamentals, with a healthy balance sheet showing more cash than debt, and analysts expect continued profitability this year. This valuation is favorable when compared to peers such as SEA, which trades at 22x, and Mercado Libre at 19x on 2026 estimates.
Additionally, the potential of Coupang’s operations in Taiwan is seen as an untapped catalyst by investors. Despite management’s increased spending in the region, there has been little change in active user metrics according to Sensor Tower statistics. Investors are awaiting concrete numbers to validate the effectiveness of the company’s strategy in Taiwan.
The revised price target reflects a 19% increase and is based on a DCF valuation that factors in higher expected revenues for both Product Commerce and Developing Offerings, which includes the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar, as well as projections for higher free cash flows in the outer years due to slightly lower capital expenditures.
In other recent news, Coupang LLC reported its first-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing a slight miss on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to analyst forecasts. The company reported an EPS of $0.06, falling short of the expected $0.07, while revenue reached $7.91 billion, missing the anticipated $8.03 billion. Despite these misses, Coupang demonstrated strong performance with a 300% year-over-year increase in operating income and a significant improvement in gross profit margin by 217 basis points. The company also announced a $1 billion share repurchase program as part of its capital allocation strategy. Additionally, Coupang’s revenue growth was 11% overall and 21% in constant currency, with a focus on expanding its presence in Taiwan through its Wow membership program. Analysts noted that the company’s growth in the Korean retail market remains robust despite competitive pressures. Furthermore, the firm maintains a full-year constant currency consolidated growth target of 20% and expects its developing offerings to incur an adjusted EBITDA loss of $650-750 million.
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