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Investing.com - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated its Equalweight rating and $195.00 price target on Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) Wednesday, citing both short-term and long-term pressures on the company’s beer volumes. The stock, currently trading near its 52-week low of $159.35, has declined over 26% in the past six months, according to InvestingPro data.
The firm identified several long-term challenges facing alcohol demand, including growing health and wellness concerns, difficulties in reducing calories in alcohol products, lower per capita consumption among younger generations, cannabis substitution, and decelerating pricing power compounding volume concerns. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a strong dividend growth rate of 14.61% and demonstrates resilience with a beta of 0.7.
Morgan Stanley noted that Constellation Brands faces company-specific headwinds from the maturation of its brand portfolio, with data showing soft buy rates across income brackets and demographics, suggesting the weakness extends beyond macro factors or Hispanic consumer trends.
Short-term pressures identified for the company include macroeconomic headwinds, unfavorable weather conditions, Hispanic consumer sentiment, and improved market share trends from competitor Anheuser-Busch InBev (EBR:ABI).
Despite these concerns, Morgan Stanley indicated these pressure points are "well known and seemingly more priced into valuation to a large extent" following Constellation Brands’ stock pullback year-to-date.
In other recent news, Constellation Brands is preparing to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings, with UBS forecasting earnings per share of $3.15, below the consensus estimate of $3.41. UBS lowered its price target for Constellation Brands to $195, maintaining a Buy rating, while Evercore ISI reduced its target to $210 and kept an "In Line" rating. BofA Securities also decreased its price target to $180, citing concerns over demand and marketing spend timing, and maintained a Neutral rating. Meanwhile, Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating with a $225 price target, highlighting potential challenges related to the Hispanic market, which constitutes a significant portion of Constellation’s consumer base. Evercore ISI noted anticipated pressure on volume trends, with beer depletions expected to decline slightly. Additionally, marketing expenses are expected to be higher in the first half of fiscal 2026, potentially affecting first-quarter results. Anheuser Busch Inbev’s stock rose following reports of potential changes in U.S. drinking guidelines, which also seemed to have a positive impact on Constellation Brands’ stock.
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