Morgan Stanley maintains Equalweight rating on Humana stock as MA Stars lawsuit dismissed

Published 18/07/2025, 19:30
Morgan Stanley maintains Equalweight rating on Humana stock as MA Stars lawsuit dismissed

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has reiterated its Equalweight rating and $290.00 price target on Humana (NYSE:HUM) following a court’s decision to dismiss the company’s Medicare Advantage Stars lawsuit against the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).

On Friday, the court granted CMS’s motion to dismiss Humana’s case, citing that the lawsuit was premature as CMS’s administrative review process had not yet concluded. The court defined all other pending motions as moot, according to Morgan Stanley’s analysis.

Humana’s earnings bridge to 2028, presented at its Investor Day, had already factored in a Stars lawsuit loss along with continued Stars challenges in 2027 before projecting a return to top quartile Stars performance in 2028. Morgan Stanley estimates a $23 gross unmitigated impact to Humana’s fiscal year 2026 earnings per share if the ruling is final. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains solid fundamentals with a P/E ratio of 15.32 and impressive revenue growth of 10.09% over the last twelve months.

The company stated it has now exhausted the administrative appeals process with CMS and is exploring all available options, including appealing the court’s order or re-filing the case. Current consensus estimates for Humana’s 2026 earnings per share show a wide range from $9.00 to $15.99.

Key debates moving forward include Humana’s bid strategy compared to peers, the company’s ability to meaningfully improve Stars ratings in 2027, Medicare Advantage and MA PDP utilization in the second half of the year, and the ultimate mitigated net impact from Stars in 2026/2027, while still acknowledging a pathway to approximately $40 earnings per share in 2028. Worth noting, InvestingPro highlights Humana’s strong dividend track record, maintaining payments for 15 consecutive years, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report covering this $26.43 billion market cap healthcare provider.

In other recent news, Humana has faced a setback as its lawsuit against the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services regarding its Stars rating was dismissed. The court ruled that the company filed the lawsuit prematurely without completing the necessary administrative appeals process. Despite this, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James has maintained an Outperform rating on Humana, with a price target increase to $340, citing the company’s earnings per share (EPS) outlook. Raymond James highlighted that a 10% recovery in Star ratings could significantly impact Humana’s EPS, adding approximately $2.60. Meanwhile, Barclays (LON:BARC) has kept its Equalweight rating, noting that the lawsuit loss was already factored into Humana’s earnings targets. In a positive development, Humana has expanded its Medicaid coverage in Virginia, offering the Humana Healthy Horizons plan to Virginia Cardinal Care beneficiaries. This expansion is part of Humana’s ongoing efforts to broaden its healthcare services portfolio. Nationally, Humana manages Medicaid benefits for nearly 1.5 million members under its Humana Healthy Horizons brand.

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