Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight rating on Microsoft stock, citing AI leadership

Published 10/07/2025, 13:50
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Investing.com - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has reiterated an Overweight rating and $530.00 price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), currently trading at $503.51 with a market capitalization of $3.74 trillion, highlighting the company’s strong position in the artificial intelligence market. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is trading near its 52-week high of $506.78, reflecting strong market confidence.

The investment firm’s second-quarter 2025 CIO survey indicates stable IT spending intentions, with chief information officers expecting IT budget growth of 3.6% year-over-year in 2025, a slight decrease of 10 basis points compared to the first quarter. Software (ETR:SOWGn) spending intentions showed a similar pattern at 3.6% year-over-year, down 18 basis points from the previous quarter. This comes as Microsoft demonstrates robust performance with revenue growth of 14.13% over the last twelve months.

Despite the overall moderation in IT spending growth, Microsoft has maintained its leadership position in core spending intentions, particularly regarding generative AI expenditure. CIOs expect Microsoft to achieve the highest forward year spending growth among software companies at 6.3%, slightly down from 6.5% in Morgan Stanley’s fourth-quarter 2024 survey.

The report notes that 67% of CIOs anticipate increased net spending on Microsoft tools, which Morgan Stanley views as evidence of the company’s AI leadership position. This continued strong performance comes despite minor sequential declines in overall IT spending expectations.

Morgan Stanley believes the market underappreciates the durability of Azure growth and EPS growth at 28 times GAAP FY27 P/E, reinforcing its Overweight stance on Microsoft stock. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is trading above its Fair Value, with a P/E ratio of 38.67, though the company maintains a "GREAT" financial health score. For deeper insights into Microsoft’s valuation and 18 additional ProTips, consider exploring the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Microsoft announced it will release its fiscal year 2025 fourth-quarter financial results on July 30, 2025. The company has made significant strides in cost savings, reportedly saving over $500 million in call centers last year through the use of artificial intelligence. This initiative is part of Microsoft’s broader strategy to enhance productivity across various segments, including sales and customer service. Meanwhile, the relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI is facing a new challenge as OpenAI plans to release an open-weight language AI model soon. This model will be accessible through multiple cloud providers, marking a shift from OpenAI’s exclusive partnership with Microsoft’s Azure. Additionally, Oppenheimer has upgraded Microsoft from Perform to Outperform, citing strong growth momentum in its AI revenue stream. The firm believes Microsoft’s AI advancements and Azure’s performance provide substantial valuation support. In another development, Microsoft is adjusting its AI chip roadmap, opting for less ambitious designs through 2028 to address development delays. This move aims to keep its AI chips competitive with those from other major players in the industry.

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