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On Thursday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts began covering Novonesis A/S (NSISB:DC), issuing an Overweight rating and setting a price target of DKK577.00. The new coverage reflects a positive outlook on the company’s potential to outperform its peers due to strong demand drivers for its products.
The analysts at Morgan Stanley predict a 7.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in top-line revenue and an 18.2% EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2027. They expect the company’s EBITDA to exceed the consensus estimates by approximately 8% and 3% for the years 2025 and 2026, respectively. The firm also anticipates that Novonesis will provide long-term targets up to 2030 with its second-quarter 2024 results, offering insight into the company’s confidence in its financial outlook.
Morgan Stanley highlights three key factors contributing to Novonesis’s expected success. First, structural tailwinds are anticipated to support 74% of the company’s revenues across various markets, including dairy, bioenergy, human health, beverage, and household care. The growing consumer preference for products that are "free from" certain ingredients, clean labeling, and higher protein content is seen as expanding the available market for Novonesis’s offerings.
Secondly, the company is considered well-positioned to capitalize on these tailwinds following a merger and a shift towards more decentralized, customer-focused decision-making. This strategic approach is expected to enable Novonesis to continue outpacing market growth, supported by its research and development spending, which is 500 basis points higher than its peers.
Finally, analysts foresee a 120 basis point expansion in EBITDA margin between 2026 and 2028. This improvement is attributed to manufacturing efficiencies, increased volumes, and synergistic benefits that should enhance operating leverage, in addition to the company’s ability to implement effective pricing strategies.
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