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Investing.com - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) upgraded Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO) from Underweight to Equalweight on Wednesday, while raising its price target to $16.00 from $13.00. The stock, currently trading at $13.02, has fallen significantly over the past three months, according to InvestingPro data.
The upgrade comes as the investment bank sees a more balanced risk/reward profile for the discount grocery retailer, citing operational improvements that are creating a more stable EBITDA trajectory against easier comparisons. The company’s last twelve months EBITDA stands at $227.2 million, with revenue growing at 10.37% year-over-year.
Morgan Stanley noted that many elements of its previous Underweight thesis have already played out, but Grocery Outlet’s second-quarter 2025 results provided evidence that fundamentals could be turning around, while current market pricing reflects stagnation.
The firm’s new price target is based on approximately 6 times its 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $338 million, with the multiple now applied to updated forward estimates.
While expressing some doubts about Grocery Outlet’s ability to address multiple improvement areas simultaneously—including in-stock levels, product freshness, independent operator retention, and technology implementation—Morgan Stanley believes the company’s current initiatives should help strengthen profitability enough to offset downside risks.
In other recent news, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing analysts’ expectations with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23. This figure exceeded the forecasted EPS of $0.17. However, the company’s revenue slightly missed projections, reporting 1.18 billion dollars against an anticipated 1.19 billion dollars. These earnings results highlight a mixed performance for the company. Despite the earnings beat, the revenue shortfall reflects some challenges in meeting market expectations. The financial community will likely scrutinize these results for insights into Grocery Outlet’s operational efficiency and market strategy. Investors may also consider the implications of these earnings in the context of broader market conditions.
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