Morgan Stanley upgrades UCB stock rating on Bimzelx sales outlook

Published 23/06/2025, 06:24
Morgan Stanley upgrades UCB stock rating on Bimzelx sales outlook

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) upgraded UCB SA (BR:UCB) stock rating from Equalweight to Overweight on Monday, while raising its price target to EUR220.00 from EUR200.00. The upgrade comes as UCB demonstrates robust financial health, evidenced by a perfect Piotroski Score of 9 according to InvestingPro data.

The upgrade comes as Morgan Stanley projects superior top-line driven growth for the Belgian pharmaceutical company, estimating approximately 22% EBITDA CAGR from 2025-2028, compared to roughly 10% for sector peers.

UCB is currently trading at approximately 16x FY’25 EV/EBITDA, representing about a 33% premium to specialty pharma peers, according to Morgan Stanley’s estimates.

The investment bank justified this premium valuation based on UCB’s growth outlook and greater pipeline optionality, with the higher price target specifically reflecting increased peak sales estimates for Bimzelx, UCB’s plaque psoriasis treatment.

Morgan Stanley acknowledged that U.S. policy remains a challenge and risk to the overall pharmaceutical sector, but suggested continued positive earnings revisions and potential clearing of sector headwinds could drive approximately 40% valuation upside for UCB.

In other recent news, TD Cowen analysts have maintained a Buy rating for UCB SA with a price target of EUR250. This decision follows insights gathered at a healthcare conference in March 2025, where feedback from physicians and payors indicated a positive outlook for UCB’s drug, Bimzelx, in treating Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS). Analysts led by Stacy Ku expressed optimism about Bimzelx’s launch and its potential to meet or exceed expectations in the HS market. The drug is projected to achieve peak sales of over EUR6 billion, with more than EUR3 billion attributed to the HS indication alone. TD Cowen highlighted the scarcity value of UCB, emphasizing its clear visibility into future value drivers and the anticipated acceleration of its earnings potential. The firm remains confident in the EUR6 billion-plus peak sales estimate for Bimzelx, which also targets Psoriatic Arthritis and Psoriasis. The unpublished survey data from the healthcare conference played a crucial role in reinforcing TD Cowen’s positive stance. The maintained price target of EUR250 reflects their belief in UCB’s strong prospects and aligns with their expectation of significant earnings growth by 2026.

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