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Investing.com - Morgan Stanley has upgraded Muthoot Finance Ltd (NS:MUTH) from Equalweight to Overweight, while raising its price target to INR2,920.00 from INR2,880.00.
The upgrade comes as Morgan Stanley forecasts a strong earnings outlook for Muthoot Finance in fiscal year 2026, projecting 46% year-over-year growth and a 24% return on equity, despite assuming only 11% growth in assets under management for the remainder of F26.
Morgan Stanley’s forecasts for Muthoot Finance are 10-15% above consensus, contrasting with expected downgrades for most stocks in their coverage universe.
The firm acknowledges structural concerns about Muthoot’s business model, including its monoline nature, high dependence on gold prices, and rising competition, while noting that a sharp decline in gold prices remains a risk to both earnings and valuation.
Despite these concerns, Morgan Stanley highlights that Muthoot’s strong trailing portfolio accretion could result in approximately 16% return on equity by fiscal year 2028, even without further assets under management growth between now and March 2028.
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