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On Thursday, Needham reaffirmed its positive stance on Global-E Online Ltd (NASDAQ:GLBE) with a Buy rating and a steady price target of $40.00. The endorsement comes as the stock trades at $34.28, having declined over 8% in the past week. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $39 to $66, suggesting potential upside. The recent drop was triggered by a revised partnership with Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) that introduced some uncertainty regarding the future benefits of this collaboration for Global-E.
Global-E reported strong first-quarter results, demonstrating consistent gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth even amid concerns over tariffs. The company achieved impressive revenue growth of 33.2% compared to the previous year, maintaining strong momentum. The renegotiation with Shopify, which aims to capture more payment revenues, has led to speculation about the potential impact on Global-E’s revenue streams. Needham’s analysis suggests a silver lining, proposing that the new terms might lead to increased volume over time due to a more user-friendly product that could drive wider adoption. For deeper insights into Global-E’s growth metrics and financial health, InvestingPro subscribers can access 12 additional key ProTips and comprehensive analysis.
The research firm expressed a cautiously optimistic view, suggesting that the new agreement could be beneficial in the long run. Prior checks with Shopify partnerships had indicated some adoption and integration challenges, which were attributed to technology issues. Needham believes that any significant improvements in adoption rates could compensate for the revenues forfeited in payment processing.
Furthermore, Global-E anticipates achieving GAAP profitability from the second quarter onward, as the company expects the wind-down of warrant amortization. This financial milestone could mark a turning point for the company, as it transitions to a more stable profit-generating phase.
In other recent news, Global-E Online Ltd reported its first-quarter earnings, which exceeded market expectations. The company posted an adjusted EBITDA of $31.6 million, surpassing the consensus forecast of $31.3 million, and reported revenue of $190 million, marking a 30% year-over-year increase. Despite a slight deceleration in growth rates, the company’s Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew by 34%, slightly above the consensus. Global-E also reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting revenue between $917 million and $967 million. The company announced a new 3-year strategic partnership with Shopify, which is expected to strengthen their long-standing relationship. Analyst firms have varied opinions, with JMP maintaining a price target of $64 and Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James adjusting their target to $55, while both firms uphold an Outperform rating. Despite potential challenges, Raymond James suggests that long-term investors may benefit from Global-E’s market share growth and competitive position. The company expects Q2 2025 revenue between $204 million and $211 million, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $35 million to $39 million.
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