Netflix stock a long-term winner—JPMorgan sees global scale driving valuation

Published 22/01/2025, 09:02
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The revised price target of $1,150 is based on approximately 38 times the estimated 2026 GAAP EPS of $30.11, which translates to about 44 times the estimated 2026 FCF of $11.1 billion.

The JPMorgan team's confidence in Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is further bolstered by the company's new $15 billion stock buyback authorization, which underscores its improving profitability and disciplined approach to content spending.

For a comprehensive analysis of Netflix's valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro. For a comprehensive analysis of Netflix's valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

Netflix's leadership in the streaming market is seen as a significant advantage, as it aims to expand its global audience beyond its current 302 million member base. JPMorgan analysts believe that Netflix's broad reach, high user engagement, and diverse content offerings will help solidify its position as the primary platform for TV, film, and other long-form content consumption worldwide. According to InvestingPro, Netflix maintains a "GREAT" overall financial health score, with 14+ additional ProTips available for subscribers.

The financial projections by JPMorgan are optimistic, forecasting an average revenue growth of 14% for Netflix in 2025 and 2026. Operating income is expected to grow by 22%, while GAAP earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow (FCF) are projected to increase by 23% and 27%, respectively. With current EPS at $17.65 and a P/E ratio of 48.02, this anticipated growth supports the analysts' belief in Netflix's premium valuation in the market.

The revised price target of $1,150 is based on approximately 38 times the estimated 2026 GAAP EPS of $30.11, which translates to about 44 times the estimated 2026 FCF of $11.1 billion. The JPMorgan team's confidence in Netflix is further bolstered by the company's new $15 billion stock buyback authorization, which underscores its improving profitability and disciplined approach to content spending.

In other recent news, Netflix has been the focus of several positive analyst actions. TD Cowen has raised the price target for Netflix to $1,150, maintaining a Buy rating, based on a positive outlook for the company's revenue and subscriber growth.

Netflix's revenue is forecasted to reach $45.0 billion in 2025, up from the previous estimate of $43.4 billion. Canaccord Genuity upgraded Netflix from Hold to Buy, setting a new price target of $1,150, following impressive revenue growth and paid memberships.

Oppenheimer also raised its price target for Netflix to $1,150, citing strong margin dynamics due to conservative revenue guidance and modest price increases. KeyBanc increased its price target to $1,100, buoyed by the expectation of low double-digit percentage revenue growth and an annual earnings per share increase of over 20%. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James maintained a Market Perform rating, reflecting a positive response to the company's strong fourth-quarter performance.

These recent developments underline the ongoing momentum of Netflix in the entertainment industry. The company has announced price increases for most subscription plans in select countries, a move that is included in its fiscal year 2025 guidance. Netflix's content lineup for 2025 and the expansion of its advertising tier were highlighted as key growth drivers.

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