Nomura cuts HDFC Life stock rating to neutral, maintains INR735 target

Published 21/04/2025, 06:54
Nomura cuts HDFC Life stock rating to neutral, maintains INR735 target

On Monday, Nomura/Instinet analysts revised their stance on HDFC Life Insurance (NSE:LIFI) Co Ltd (HDFCLIFE:IN), downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral, while keeping the price target unchanged at INR735.00. The adjustment comes after a notable increase in the company’s stock price, which has risen approximately 14% over the past three months, outperforming the benchmark Nifty index by 11%.

The analysts at Nomura/Instinet explained that their previous investment thesis, as detailed in their note from January 15, has largely been realized in the past quarter. They now anticipate a period of muted growth for HDFC Life Insurance in the first half of 2026, with no significant improvement in margins expected throughout the year.

The current valuation of HDFC Life Insurance at 2.4 times its one-year forward Price/Earnings to Embedded Value (P/EV) is believed to sufficiently reflect the positive aspects of the company. This has led to the decision to maintain the price target at INR735, which values the stock at 2.1 times its Fiscal Year 2027 forecasted P/EV.

Looking ahead, Nomura/Instinet expects the company’s Annualized Premium Equivalent (APE) and Value of New Business (VNB) to achieve compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of approximately 14% and 12% respectively over fiscal years 2025-2027. This projection is based on the company’s APE/VNB growth of roughly 17.5% and 13% year-over-year in fiscal 2025.

Additionally, the analysts have incorporated a VNB margin of about 25%, which is slightly lower than the levels expected for fiscal 2025, and an average return on operating Embedded Value (EV) of around 17% for the fiscal years 2025-2027. These projections are part of Nomura/Instinet’s comprehensive analysis of HDFC Life Insurance’s financial outlook.

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