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On Monday, CLSA analysts maintained a positive stance on NTPC Ltd (NSE:NTPC:IN), reiterating an Outperform (2) rating along with an unchanged price target of INR459.00. The firm’s assessment is based on NTPC’s financial performance and strategic initiatives, highlighting a 10% year-over-year growth in FY25 recommended Profit After Tax (PAT) driven by a 4% increase in regulated equity. This growth is attributed to exceptional operational efficiency in the fourth quarter, with a significant reduction in under-recoveries and a 78% surge in incentives, resulting from a more than 310 basis points annual increase in thermal Plant Availability Factor (PAF).
The analysts also emphasized the favorable FY25-29 regulatory environment for energy security, which supports NTPC’s performance. Despite a slowdown in regulated equity growth due to large capacity additions being postponed to the first quarter of FY26, CLSA anticipates a substantial increase in capacity starting operations in FY26, with 11.8 gigawatts expected to come online, tripling year-over-year.
A notable element of NTPC’s strategy is its ambitious capital expenditure plan, which is projected to be around $31 billion from FY26 to FY28, more than doubling the previous period’s investment. This plan includes 16.9 gigawatts of regulated under-construction capacity and 14.6 gigawatts of non-fossil energy projects, contributing to an installed capacity of 80 gigawatts. With 46% of its 60 gigawatt non-fossil energy vision either operational or under construction, NTPC is demonstrating concrete steps toward solidifying its energy transition pathway.
CLSA anticipates that the growth in PAT will enhance NTPC’s Return on Equity (ROE) by 230 basis points over FY25-27. The analysts expect the stock to continue its re-rating trend, which began in 2021 when NTPC took a leadership role in the energy transition while maintaining a focus on energy security.
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