Oppenheimer lifts Caterpillar stock rating, sets $395 target

Published 01/05/2025, 11:50
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On Thursday, Oppenheimer upgraded Caterpillar shares from Perform to Outperform, setting a price target of $395.00. Currently trading at $309.27, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is undervalued. The firm’s analysts cited the company’s recent performance, which surpassed expectations, demonstrating the durability of demand and margins even amidst global economic uncertainties.

Caterpillar, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker (NYSE:CAT), received a positive evaluation based on several key factors. With a market capitalization of $147.8 billion and a P/E ratio of 15, the company maintains a strong market position. The strength and diversity of the company’s backlog growth, which showed no significant signs of being influenced by tariff pre-buy activities, were highlighted as indicators of underlying demand.

The analysts also pointed to the reduced business cyclicality due to 40% of Caterpillar’s sales coming from its services division. This diversification is seen as a stabilizing factor for the company’s financial performance, contributing to its annual revenue of $63.3 billion and earning a "GOOD" Financial Health Score from InvestingPro.

Furthermore, Oppenheimer’s outlook on Caterpillar is bolstered by the company’s consistent share buyback strategy, which is interpreted as a commitment to delivering shareholder value. According to InvestingPro data, management has been aggressively buying back shares, and the company has maintained dividend payments for 55 consecutive years. The firm believes these elements form a solid foundation for Caterpillar as it enters a new chapter with recently appointed CEO Joe Creed.

Despite the acknowledgment of macroeconomic uncertainty and potential downside risks, Oppenheimer views the year-to-date pullback in Caterpillar’s stock price as an opportune moment for long-term investors to engage with the company. The firm’s upgrade reflects a constructive stance on the stock’s future trajectory, aligning with the stock’s undervalued status according to InvestingPro Fair Value calculations.

In other recent news, Caterpillar Inc. reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, which fell short of analyst expectations. The company announced an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.25, missing the forecasted $4.35, and revenue of $14.25 billion, which was below the anticipated $14.58 billion. This performance reflected a 10% year-over-year decline in sales and revenues, raising concerns about the company’s current market challenges. Despite these setbacks, Caterpillar noted strong backlog growth, indicating potential future demand. In a separate development, Baird analyst Mircea Dobre upgraded Caterpillar’s stock rating from Underperform to Neutral, with a new price target of $309, acknowledging that previous negative catalysts are now reflected in the company’s fundamentals. The analyst highlighted positive indicators such as better-than-expected dealer inventories and resilient demand. Caterpillar’s ability to manage pricing and costs effectively was also noted as a factor contributing to its improved outlook amidst tariff impacts.

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