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On Wednesday, TD Cowen adjusted its outlook on P3 Health Partners Inc (NASDAQ:PIII), lowering the price target from $12.50 to $8.00, while maintaining a Hold rating on the company’s shares. The stock, currently trading at $7.26, sits near its 52-week low of $7.00, having declined over 73% in the past year. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company appears undervalued based on its Fair Value metrics. The revision follows P3 Health’s first-quarter 2025 results, which revealed an adjusted EBITDA loss of $22 million. This figure fell short of both TD Cowen’s and the consensus estimate, which had anticipated a loss of $20 million. InvestingPro data shows the company’s broader financial challenges, with a trailing twelve-month EBITDA loss of $227.49 million and concerning gross profit margins of -4.32%.
The company concluded the first quarter of 2025 with approximately $40 million in cash on hand. Despite this, analysts at TD Cowen project that P3 Health will require additional capital in both 2025 and 2026 to sustain operations. This concern is supported by InvestingPro data showing a current ratio of 0.38, indicating the company’s short-term obligations exceed its liquid assets. Discover more insights and 8 additional ProTips about PIII with an InvestingPro subscription. In response to the company’s financial performance, the firm has made slight modifications to its EBITDA estimates, revising the 2025 forecast from a loss of $63 million to a loss of $64 million, and the 2026 projection from a loss of $22 million to a loss of $23 million.
The price target adjustment also takes into account the impact of the recent 1-for-50 reverse stock split conducted by P3 Health. TD Cowen has applied a valuation multiple of 0.15 times the 2026 expected revenue to arrive at the new price target. With a current market capitalization of just $52.14 million, the company trades at relatively low revenue multiples, as highlighted in InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis report.
TD Cowen’s analyst remarked on the adjustment, stating, "We are updating our estimates to reflect 1Q25 results including Adj EBITDA of ($22m), below our estimated ($20m) and consensus ($20m) to ($15m). We are slightly lowering our 2025 EBITDA estimate from ($63m) to ($64m) and our 2026E from ($22m) to ($23m). PIII ended 1Q25 with ~$40m in cash, and we continue to estimate the company will need to raise additional capital in 2025 and 2026. We are cosmetically adjusting our price target from 25c to $8.00 to reflect the recent 1-for-50 reverse stock split and a 0.15x 2026 EV/Revenue."
In other recent news, P3 Health Partners reported its Q1 2025 financial results, which revealed a mixed performance. The company posted a total revenue of $373 million, falling short of the $358.76 million forecast. This represents a 4% decline year-over-year. Despite missing revenue expectations, P3 Health Partners achieved a significant reduction in operating expenses, decreasing them by 18% sequentially. The company also noted an 8% increase in per member funding, which suggests improved efficiency in managing its member base.
Additionally, P3 Health Partners experienced an 8% decline in average membership, which contributed to the revenue shortfall. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $22 million for the quarter. Despite these challenges, P3 Health Partners reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting a $130 million EBITDA improvement and an $8 million EBITDA contribution from ACO Reach. The company emphasized its focus on enhancing value-based care partnerships and operational efficiencies.
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