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Investing.com - Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) raised its price target on Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) to $34.00 from $21.00 on Thursday, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The company, currently trading at $34.63 with a market capitalization of $1.78 billion, is trading near its 52-week high of $34.82. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears to be trading above its Fair Value.
The investment firm expects Par Pacific to beat second-quarter 2025 consensus estimates, projecting EBITDA results 21% above current expectations and EPS 73% higher than consensus. Supporting this outlook, InvestingPro data shows that 4 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period. Mizuho attributes this anticipated outperformance to stronger refining results, driven by an approximately $6 per barrel quarter-over-quarter improvement in indicator margins, higher volumes, and consistent margin capture.
Mizuho forecasts that Par Pacific’s combined Logistics and Retail earnings will remain roughly flat quarter-over-quarter, with seasonal strength in Retail offsetting slightly weaker Logistics performance.
The firm noted that discussions around Par Pacific have focused on potential Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), to which the company is highly leveraged. Par Pacific was previously a beneficiary of these exemptions and has legacy claims of approximately $300 million.
Mizuho adjusted its forward estimates to be slightly above the mid-point of Par Pacific’s guided 90%-100% mid-cycle range, compared to previous assumptions at the low end of that range, citing stronger-than-expected margin capture in recent quarters. The company has demonstrated strong momentum, with a remarkable year-to-date return of 111% and maintains a healthy liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.56. Get access to 15 additional valuable insights about PARR with an InvestingPro subscription.
In other recent news, Par Pacific Holdings reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a larger-than-expected loss of $0.94 per share, compared to the forecasted loss of $0.34 per share. However, the company achieved a notable revenue of $1.75 billion, surpassing expectations of $1.61 billion. Analysts from UBS raised their price target for Par Pacific Holdings to $23, citing significant improvements in crack spreads and positive revisions to earnings estimates for the upcoming years. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs downgraded Par Pacific Holdings from Buy to Neutral, setting a price target of $19, due to the company’s recent share performance aligning more closely with market conditions. TD Cowen analysts raised their price target for the company to $20, maintaining a Buy rating, and highlighted Par Pacific’s strategic moves, such as share repurchases and inventory management, as factors contributing to a positive outlook. The company’s operational advancements, including the early restart of Wyoming operations and progress in Montana, have been recognized as key developments. Additionally, Par Pacific’s ongoing focus on refining, logistics, and retail continues to bolster its market position, with a projected throughput of 367,000 barrels per day for the second quarter.
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