Phillips 66 stock target raised to $120 by TD Cowen

Published 13/05/2025, 15:46
Phillips 66 stock target raised to $120 by TD Cowen

On Tuesday, TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman increased the price target on Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) to $120 from $114, while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the $50.5 billion market cap company range from $110 to $149, with the stock currently trading at $124.04. The company maintains a "FAIR" Financial Health score of 2.19 out of 3, particularly strong in price momentum and cash flow metrics. Gabelman’s adjustment comes ahead of the upcoming annual general meeting (AGM) scheduled for May 21, where shareholders will cast their votes on proposals put forth by activist investor Elliott Management.

Elliott Management’s campaign aims to influence the strategic direction of Phillips 66, particularly in regards to corporate governance and capital allocation. The activist investor has proposed changes to the board of directors and is pushing for a declassification of the board. Glass Lewis (JO:LEWJ), a proxy advisory firm, has recommended that shareholders vote for three of the four board members nominated by Elliott. In contrast, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) has endorsed all four of Elliott’s nominees.

Gabelman noted that while an Elliott victory at the AGM may not lead to immediate material changes, there is a recognition that the competing priorities of a refining and midstream company have impacted Phillips 66’s equity performance. InvestingPro data shows the stock has delivered a -15.37% return over the past year, though it has rebounded with a 5.11% gain year-to-date and an impressive 12.61% surge in the past week. The company currently offers a 4.04% dividend yield, with 14.29% dividend growth in the last twelve months. Although he acknowledges Elliott’s point on corporate governance and agrees that Phillips 66’s refining performance may have been overstated by Elliott, the benefits of a potential spinoff or sale following Phillips 66’s recent midstream mergers and acquisitions are less clear.

Investors are encouraged to evaluate Elliott’s activism in three areas: corporate governance, operational execution, and corporate structure and capital allocation. Gabelman sides with Elliott on corporate governance and capital allocation, yet he favors Phillips 66’s current operational execution. The recommendations from advisory firms Glass Lewis and ISS could increase the likelihood of Elliott’s success in the upcoming vote.

The AGM on May 21 will be a pivotal moment for Phillips 66, as shareholders decide on the election of four board members out of the twelve-member board and consider Elliott’s proposal to declassify the board. The outcome of these votes could steer the future strategic direction of the company. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, Phillips 66 appears slightly undervalued at current levels. Investors seeking deeper insights can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which provides detailed analysis of Phillips 66’s financial health, valuation metrics, and growth prospects, along with over 30 key financial metrics and expert insights.

In other recent news, Phillips 66 has been actively defending its strategic direction and board composition against criticisms from Elliott Management. The company reported a 67% total shareholder return under CEO Mark Lashier, surpassing industry benchmarks. Phillips 66 has rejected Elliott’s proposal to separate its Midstream operations and sell CPChem, arguing that such actions could lead to potential tax liabilities and value destruction. The company emphasized its commitment to strong corporate governance, highlighting the addition of five new independent directors since 2020. Phillips 66’s board is urging shareholders to vote for its nominees and support the declassification of the board, while rejecting Elliott’s proposals.

Elliott Management, a significant shareholder, has been campaigning for changes in Phillips 66’s boardroom, nominating four independent candidates and criticizing the current directors for complacency. The firm has highlighted concerns over governance practices and has proposed governance improvements, including addressing the classified board structure. Elliott’s campaign includes a podcast episode featuring board nominee Michael Heim, who emphasizes the potential of Phillips 66’s assets and the need for strategic growth. The ongoing proxy contest will culminate in Phillips 66’s annual meeting, where shareholders will vote on various proposals.

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