Piper Sandler reiterates overweight rating on HF Sinclair stock

Published 05/06/2025, 13:14
Piper Sandler reiterates overweight rating on HF Sinclair stock

On Thursday, Piper Sandler analysts reaffirmed their Overweight rating on HF Sinclair stock (NYSE: DINO), maintaining a price target of $43.00. The analysts pointed to a strong margin backdrop that suggests potential upward revisions for the second quarter and beyond. According to InvestingPro data, five analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward, and the stock appears undervalued based on Fair Value analysis.

The analysts highlighted HF Sinclair as a top pick due to anticipated increases in forward earnings estimates and the potential for accelerated share buybacks in the second half of 2025. They noted that despite some margin moderation in recent weeks, there remains significant upside to the company’s second and third quarter estimates. Piper Sandler forecasts second-quarter EPS/EBITDA at $1.19/$508 million compared to the Street’s $0.95/$424 million, and third-quarter EPS/EBITDA at $1.17/$504 million against the Street’s $0.96/$447 million. InvestingPro reveals that management has been aggressively buying back shares, though the company currently faces challenges with a gross profit margin of 4.51%.

The potential for a material inflection in free cash flow from the second quarter forward is expected to support a ramp-up in share buybacks later this year. This could be further enhanced by HF Sinclair’s exposure to a potential policy shift under a Trump administration, which might reinstate Small Refinery Exemptions for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs).

The analysts reiterated that HF Sinclair remains a top pick, driven by the company’s strong financial outlook and strategic positioning in the market.

In other recent news, HF Sinclair Corporation reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a net loss of $4 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, which fell short of analyst expectations. The company also reported revenue of $6.37 billion, missing the forecast of $6.73 billion. Despite these financial setbacks, HF Sinclair remains focused on future growth through strategic investments and operational efficiencies. In a separate development, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities upgraded its rating for HF Sinclair from Neutral to Outperform, setting a new price target of $47.00. This upgrade reflects Mizuho’s reassessment of the company’s prospects, particularly in light of broader industry trends and the potential for improved U.S. refining fundamentals. The firm anticipates a favorable environment for larger operators with stable cash generation and superior asset quality. Additionally, Mizuho revised its list of Top Picks in the sector, highlighting companies like ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) while maintaining others such as Coterra Energy (NYSE:CTRA). These recent developments underscore HF Sinclair’s strategic positioning within the energy sector amidst a volatile macroeconomic environment.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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