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On Thursday, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James analyst Andrew Marok adjusted the rating for Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ: SEAT), moving it from Outperform to Market Perform. This decision came after the company’s fourth-quarter 2024 results, which aligned with or slightly exceeded consensus expectations. The stock, currently trading at $2.90, has fallen nearly 29% in the past week, with InvestingPro data showing RSI indicators suggesting oversold territory. Despite this, the firm has set a price target of $5.00 for Vivid Seats shares, while the company maintains a market capitalization of $605 million.
Vivid Seats provided guidance for 2025 that fell short of analyst forecasts, albeit within a broad range. The company anticipates a challenging near-term environment, with expected declines in the first half of the year before a potential return to growth in the second half. While maintaining a healthy gross profit margin of 74% and operating with moderate debt levels, the competitive landscape in the ticketing industry is anticipated to impact the company’s performance, with rivals intensifying their marketing efforts. InvestingPro analysis reveals multiple additional insights about the company’s financial health and growth prospects, available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report.
The company’s start to 2025 has been inconsistent, with initial strong stadium concert supply indications that have recently begun to wane. In response, Vivid Seats is adopting a conservative outlook, allowing flexibility to adjust their marketing and technology strategies as new opportunities emerge.
Despite the downgrade, Raymond James recognizes Vivid Seats as a significant contender in the secondary ticket market. The firm acknowledges the company’s strategic emphasis on margins rather than growth, considering it a prudent long-term approach. However, the increased marketing expenditures by competitors in the post-pandemic environment are expected to pose challenges to Vivid Seats’ growth for the time being.
In other recent news, Vivid Seats Inc. reported a slight year-over-year increase in fourth-quarter revenue, reaching $200 million, which exceeded analysts’ expectations of $194.19 million. However, the company experienced a significant decline in net income, dropping 87% to $14.3 million for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter fell by 2% to $34.2 million, while full-year adjusted EBITDA increased by 7% to $151.4 million. Despite these mixed financial results, Vivid Seats maintains a cautious outlook for 2025, projecting Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) between $3.7 billion and $4.1 billion, with revenues ranging from $730 million to $810 million.
Canaccord Genuity adjusted its price target for Vivid Seats to $5.00 from $6.00 but maintained a Buy rating following the earnings report. The company’s profitability forecast suggests potential margin compression due to increased investments in marketing and product capabilities. Analysts from Citi also maintained a Buy rating but noted that the 2025 guidance fell short of expectations, potentially affecting market reactions. RBC Capital highlighted the need for increased spending on performance marketing to maintain market position.
Vivid Seats is also focusing on international expansion, having launched operations in Europe, and announced a new partnership with United Airlines. The company aims to leverage its loyalty program and product innovations to drive future growth, despite challenges in the competitive ticketing market.
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