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On Thursday, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James analyst Joseph Altobello maintained a Market Perform rating for Harley-Davidson stock (NYSE:HOG), which currently trades at a modest P/E ratio of 6.85. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has experienced significant pressure, declining 29% over the past six months. Altobello's assessment follows a recent survey of 20 U.S. Harley-Davidson dealers aimed at evaluating domestic demand trends for the first quarter of 2025. The survey's findings suggest an estimated high-teens percentage decline in U.S. retail sales for Harley-Davidson year-over-year, approximately 18%.
This anticipated decline in retail sales marks a slight increase from the 15% decrease reported in the previous quarter. It is also noted that Harley-Davidson is comparing against a more challenging period this year, with last year's figures reflecting a 6% increase due to the refresh of its Touring bikes, as opposed to a 9% decrease the year before.
The ongoing decrease in retail sales is attributed to macroeconomic challenges and uncertainty, including high interest rates that have resulted in reduced discretionary spending. The survey indicates that Harley-Davidson's sales could be down by 25% compared to the first quarter of 2019, aligning with the 27% decrease seen in the same comparison last quarter.
Harley-Davidson is expected to release its first-quarter results in early May. The company's performance will be closely watched by investors and analysts alike, as it continues to navigate the current economic landscape.
In other recent news, Harley-Davidson announced its first-quarter cash dividend of $0.18 per share, scheduled for payment on March 14, 2025. This decision underscores the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders amidst a competitive global market. Meanwhile, DA Davidson initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $31 price target, reflecting confidence in Harley-Davidson's strategic initiatives and future performance. However, Citi analysts revised their outlook, lowering the price target to $28 and maintaining a Neutral rating due to concerns about the company's guidance and retail environment challenges. The ongoing CEO succession plan is another focal point, with Jochen Zeitz planning to retire in 2025 and the search for a new CEO already underway. The transition aims to ensure leadership continuity and support the company's strategic direction. The board has expressed gratitude for Zeitz's contributions, including his leadership through challenging times and the development of the Hardwire strategic plan. These developments are being closely watched by investors and analysts as Harley-Davidson navigates its future path.
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