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On Monday, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James confirmed its Market Perform rating on shares of National Fuel Gas (NYSE:NFG), following a review of the company’s second-quarter fiscal year 2025 performance. Analysts at the firm adjusted their earnings per share (EPS) estimate to approximately $6.82, a slight decrease from the previous $6.87 estimate. This revision is attributed to a weaker gas strip, which has impacted the forecast. According to InvestingPro data, NFG currently trades at a P/E ratio of 193.44, suggesting a premium valuation relative to industry peers. The stock is currently trading near its 52-week high of $83.35.
National Fuel Gas’s fiscal year 2025 production is expected to reach around 1.15 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d), a slight increase from the prior estimate of approximately 1.14 Bcfe/d. This projection aligns with the company’s new guidance. Additionally, the firm’s total capital expenditure for the fiscal year is anticipated to be around $918 million. With a market capitalization of $7.34 billion and a consistent track record of dividend payments, including 54 consecutive years of increases, NFG maintains a current dividend yield of 2.54%.
The utility customer margin, which is the operating revenue minus the purchased gas expense, is now guided at $455 million, reflecting a minor downward adjustment. Despite this, the company’s free cash flow (FCF) yield for 2025 and 2026 is estimated at approximately 4/3%, which is below the median for small to mid-cap companies, typically around 11/11%. The lower FCF yield is primarily due to National Fuel Gas’s integrated business model.
The analyst highlighted National Fuel Gas’s resilience amid commodity price volatility, crediting the company’s hedging strategy as a key factor in its ability to maintain stable performance. The reiteration of the Market Perform rating suggests that Raymond James views the stock as adequately valued based on their assessment of the company’s financial outlook and market conditions.
In other recent news, National Fuel Gas Company reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.39, compared to the forecasted $2.15. However, the company’s revenue of $729.95 million slightly missed the forecast of $768.23 million. Despite the revenue shortfall, the company raised its earnings guidance for the fiscal year, indicating confidence in its future performance. The company’s strong results were driven by higher natural gas prices and an efficient cost structure. National Fuel Gas also discussed its strategic moves, including significant natural gas hedges for fiscal 2026 and 2027. Additionally, management highlighted improvements in well design and its hedging strategy to effectively manage price risk. Analysts have shown interest in potential mergers and acquisitions, with the company discussing the prospect of larger utility acquisitions. National Fuel Gas’s outlook remains strong, supported by its operational efficiencies and strategic positioning in the market.
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