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On Wednesday, Redburn-Atlantic updated its stance on American Express (NYSE:AXP) stock, raising the rating from Sell to Neutral, while simultaneously reducing the price target to $255 from the previous $270. The adjustment follows a notable decline in the company’s share price, which has dropped over 25% since its January peak, with the stock currently trading at $252.42. According to InvestingPro data, AXP has seen a -14.47% YTD price return, while maintaining a "GOOD" overall Financial Health score.
According to Redburn-Atlantic, American Express has not only underperformed the broader S&P 500, which saw a decrease of 16%, but also lagged behind the S&P 500 Banks index, which fell 18% during the same timeframe. The firm’s analyst, Harry Bartlett, expressed ongoing concerns regarding American Express’s potential to achieve its ambitious mid-term revenue growth target of over 10%. These concerns are evident in the firm’s estimates, which remain below the consensus.
Despite these reservations, Redburn-Atlantic now believes that the current valuation of American Express stock more accurately reflects the company’s future returns profile. This reassessment has led to the decision to upgrade the stock rating to Neutral.
The firm’s revised price target of $255 takes into account the recent underperformance and the challenges American Express faces in meeting its revenue growth aspirations. The new target aims to align with the adjusted expectations for the company’s financial performance moving forward.
The rating upgrade to Neutral suggests that Redburn-Atlantic views the risks and potential rewards of investing in American Express as more balanced following the stock’s recent price decline. This change in rating is an important signal to investors regarding the firm’s latest perspective on the stock’s investment potential.
In other recent news, American Express reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $3.64, which surpassed the forecasted $3.48. The company’s revenue was in line with expectations at $17 billion, marking an 8% increase from the previous year. Despite exceeding EPS expectations by 4.6%, American Express saw a slight dip in its stock during pre-market trading. Management remains optimistic, maintaining a full-year revenue growth outlook of 8-10%. Analyst firm Citi maintained a neutral rating on American Express, with a price target of $300, noting concerns over consumer spending and lower fees. The company experienced a 10-cent core pre-provision net revenue shortfall against consensus, attributed to decreased discount fees and higher customer engagement costs. Despite these challenges, American Express added 3.4 million new cards, with card member spending growing 6%, demonstrating robust performance. Citi projects slower billing growth for American Express but anticipates some balance from favorable net interest income tailwinds.
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