Saia stock target cut to $277 from $480 by Stifel

Published 28/04/2025, 18:30
Saia stock target cut to $277 from $480 by Stifel

On Monday, Stifel analysts adjusted their outlook on Saia Inc. (NASDAQ:SAIA), significantly reducing the price target from $480.00 to $277.00, while reaffirming a Buy rating on the company’s shares. The transportation company encountered headwinds in the first quarter of 2025, missing expectations in key performance areas. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has fallen nearly 25% in the past week alone, now trading at $238.01, with analyst targets ranging from $250 to $515.

Saia reported challenges with tonnage and operating ratio in the first quarter, with the latter exceeding 90%. Analysts noted this as a reflection of the risks associated with rapid network expansion, which Saia has pursued more aggressively than its peers. An increase in weight per shipment of nearly 8% year-over-year was also observed, which, although typically a sign of improved efficiency, can lead to network imbalances if changes are abrupt and unforeseen. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains a moderate debt level with a healthy current ratio of 1.43, suggesting sufficient liquidity to manage its expansion strategy.

The company faces a volatile year, with the possibility of further declines in volume in the upcoming month. Management is expected to intensify efforts to recalibrate the network to address these issues. Consequently, analysts have revised their projections to account for the anticipated challenges.

Despite the downward adjustment in financial expectations, Stifel analysts hold the view that the core aspects of Saia’s business remain sound. They believe that there are no fundamental flaws with the company, the broader industry, or Saia’s value proposition to customers. This perspective underpins their decision to maintain the Buy rating despite the reduced price target.

In other recent news, Saia Inc. reported disappointing first-quarter 2025 earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.86 falling short of the projected $2.77. The company’s revenue for the quarter was $787.6 million, which also missed expectations. This earnings miss led to a significant drop in Saia’s stock price. Analyst firms have responded to these developments with various adjustments. Benchmark reduced its price target for Saia from $450 to $325, maintaining a Buy rating, while Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James lowered its target to $310 but kept an Outperform rating, citing optimism in Saia’s growth prospects. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) upgraded Saia’s stock rating from Underweight to Equalweight but decreased the price target to $250, reflecting recalibrated expectations. BMO Capital Markets downgraded Saia’s stock rating from Outperform to Market Perform, cutting the price target to $285, due to challenges in executing its growth strategy amid a freight recession. Despite these adjustments, some analysts remain optimistic about Saia’s long-term potential, highlighting the company’s strategic investments and network enhancements as factors that could drive future growth.

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