Scotiabank raises Microsoft stock target to $500, maintains outlook

Published 01/05/2025, 12:58
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On Thursday, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) analyst Patrick Colville increased the price target for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares to $500 from the previous $470, while retaining a Sector Outperform rating. With a current market capitalization of $2.94 trillion and an overall "GREAT" financial health score according to InvestingPro, Microsoft continues to demonstrate its market dominance. The adjustment follows Microsoft’s impressive financial performance in the recent quarter, which Colville described as a standout, particularly noting the exceptional growth of Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing service.

Microsoft’s Azure platform saw significant growth in the third fiscal quarter, which Colville attributes to a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) spending and an uptick in traditional workloads from quarter to quarter. The company’s strong performance is reflected in its impressive 15% year-over-year revenue growth and robust gross profit margin of 69.4%. Looking ahead, management at Microsoft has projected a robust 34.5% constant currency growth for Azure in the fourth fiscal quarter. This forecast is anticipated to dispel concerns over a potential slowdown in AI, which had been a point of bearish narratives previously.

In addition to the strong Azure growth, Microsoft’s management has confirmed capital expenditure targets exceeding $80 billion for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, though they will be less than in fiscal year 2025. This commitment is seen as a positive response to recent reports that Microsoft had canceled plans for AI data centers, as it demonstrates ongoing robust demand for Microsoft’s services.

The company’s total revenue re-accelerated in the third fiscal quarter, with fourth fiscal quarter guidance surpassing analyst expectations by one percentage point. This comes as a welcome surprise, given that Microsoft’s revenue targets have fallen short of consensus for the past four quarters. Moreover, the positive guidance arrives amidst a period of generally unfavorable macroeconomic news.

Colville emphasizes that with Microsoft’s stock trading near five-year valuation lows, the current moment presents an opportune time for investment. Based on InvestingPro analysis, which shows the company has maintained dividend payments for 23 consecutive years and operates with moderate debt levels, Microsoft demonstrates strong financial stability. He expresses confidence in Microsoft’s potential for sustained growth, driven by its leading role in the AI revolution through products like AI on Azure and Microsoft 365 Copilot. For deeper insights into Microsoft’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro, which covers over 1,400 top US stocks.

In other recent news, Microsoft Corporation has reported impressive third-quarter financial results, with total revenue reaching $70.1 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year on a constant currency basis, surpassing analysts’ expectations. The company’s Azure cloud services were a significant contributor, achieving a 35% growth rate, exceeding management’s guidance of 31%-32%. Following these results, several analyst firms have raised their price targets for Microsoft. Evercore ISI increased its target to $500, citing Azure’s strong performance and stable capital expenditure forecasts. JPMorgan also raised its target to $475, highlighting Azure’s unexpected growth driven by AI demand. Similarly, Goldman Sachs adjusted its target to $480, noting the acceleration in Azure’s growth and the company’s potential in the AI market. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities matched Evercore’s target of $500, emphasizing Microsoft’s robust revenue and Azure’s projected growth of 34%-35% in the fourth quarter. These developments reflect a positive sentiment among analysts regarding Microsoft’s future performance, especially in its cloud and AI services.

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