Simply Goods Group stock price target lowered to $43 at Mizuho

Investing.com - Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) lowered its price target on The Simply Goods Group (NASDAQ:SMPL) to $43.00 from $47.00 on Tuesday, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The company, currently trading at $34.05, has seen three analysts revise their earnings estimates downward, according to InvestingPro data.

The firm cited multiple positive factors for Simply Goods exiting FY25, including continued momentum for the Quest brand driven by innovation and distribution, as well as encouragingly flat underlying Atkins sales when excluding distribution and promotional adjustments. The company maintains strong financial health with a 3.95 current ratio and operates with moderate debt levels, demonstrating solid operational efficiency.

Mizuho noted that new distribution is positioned to reaccelerate growth at the company’s OWYN brand, but warned that further rationalization of non-core Atkins items in FY26 will likely reduce brand sales more than expected, potentially by mid to high teens percentage.

The price target reduction reflects both a de-rating of nutrition and staples growth peers and Mizuho’s reduced adjusted EBITDA estimates for FY25 ($283 million from $285 million) and FY26 ($290 million from $308 million).

Despite these adjustments, Mizuho continues to see a "very favorable" near-term risk/reward profile for Simply Goods Group, with potential upside to estimates from distribution and innovation at Quest and OWYN brands, as well as pricing and productivity improvements. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which offers deep-dive analysis of this and 1,400+ other US stocks.

In other recent news, The Simply Good Foods Group reported third-quarter 2025 results that exceeded expectations, with EBITDA reaching $73.9 million, marking a 3% increase from the previous year. Organic sales growth was recorded at 3.8%, surpassing consensus expectations of 2.25%. However, the company has adjusted its fiscal year 2025 guidance to the lower end of its previous range, citing challenges such as cost inflation and tariff headwinds. Analysts have mixed views on the company’s outlook. Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating, highlighting better-than-expected organic sales growth, while UBS maintained a Neutral rating, emphasizing weaker consumer demand and ongoing challenges. DA Davidson also reiterated a Neutral rating, noting a slight miss in net sales for the OWYN brand and potential challenges ahead. TD Cowen lowered its price target to $34 from $36, attributing this to anticipated sales declines for the Atkins brand. Stifel maintained a Buy rating, recognizing strong growth in the Quest and OWYN brands but also acknowledging ongoing difficulties with the Atkins brand.

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