Simply Goods stock tumbles as UBS cuts price target on weak outlook

Published 24/10/2025, 15:26
Simply Goods stock tumbles as UBS cuts price target on weak outlook

Investing.com - Simply Goods Group (NASDAQ:SMPL) stock plunged 17% on Friday after UBS lowered its price target to $23.00 from $27.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating. According to InvestingPro data, this decline adds to a challenging period for the company, which has seen its shares fall over 30% in the past six months.

The price target reduction followed Simply Goods’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share miss, where stronger organic sales growth was offset by weaker gross margins. The company’s initial fiscal year 2026 outlook also fell short of Street expectations on both top and bottom lines. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains strong financial health with a current ratio of 3.95 and operates with moderate debt levels at just 17% debt-to-equity.

The significant stock decline outpaced the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), which fell only 0.5% on Friday. UBS noted the magnitude of the sell-off was "surprising" given that shares had already dropped 23% since the company’s third-quarter results in early July.

UBS maintained its Neutral stance, citing "top line uncertainty" and a fiscal 2026 outlook that is "very much back half weighted." The firm indicated it would need "greater conviction that negative estimate revisions are in the rearview" before becoming more positive on the stock.

Despite Simply Goods trading at a discount compared to its historical valuation and peer group, UBS suggested investors might take a "wait and see approach" as valuation alone has not proven to be a meaningful catalyst for the stock. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently undervalued, with additional insights available through the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which provides deep-dive analysis of over 1,400 US stocks.

In other recent news, The Simply Good Foods Group reported its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing a mixed financial performance. The company posted earnings per share of $0.46, which fell short of the expected $0.48, resulting in a negative surprise of 4.17%. Despite slightly surpassing revenue forecasts, the market reacted negatively to the earnings report. DA Davidson maintained its Neutral rating and $39.00 price target on Simply Good Foods, noting that the company’s quarterly performance missed both their expectations and consensus estimates. Initial guidance for fiscal year 2026 also fell short, suggesting continued challenges in achieving organic top-line growth. Additionally, Bernstein SocGen Group lowered its price target on the company to $28.00 from $42.00, maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm cited ongoing challenges with the Atkins brand and a temporary quality issue for OWYN as reasons for the adjustment. Nonetheless, Simply Good Foods is still delivering 3% organic sales growth, according to Bernstein SocGen.

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