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On Monday, Baird analysts revised their stance on Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX), downgrading the coffee giant’s stock rating from Outperform to Neutral. Accompanying this change, the firm also significantly reduced the price target from the previous $114.00 to $85.00. The decision to adopt a more conservative outlook was driven by concerns over near-term risks to the company’s earnings projections. The stock, currently trading at $82.10, has experienced significant pressure, falling over 16% in the past week alone, according to InvestingPro data.
According to Baird analysts, the downgrade reflects a cautious approach towards Starbucks’ valuation assumptions in the short term. The firm pointed out the challenges Starbucks faces in meeting current consensus projections, which depend on a considerable improvement in same-store traffic—a factor that recently has shown less promising trends. Baird’s analysts highlighted that the visibility of such an improvement is currently lower, prompting a reevaluation of the stock’s prospects. With a market capitalization of $93.26 billion and an analyst consensus recommendation of 2.34, InvestingPro data shows the stock currently trades between analyst targets ranging from $76 to $125.
Despite the downgrade, Baird’s analysts expressed a high level of confidence in the long-term success of Starbucks’ turnaround efforts under the leadership of CEO Brian Nicol. They anticipate these strategies will ultimately lead to a bullish scenario for the company. However, the analysts also noted that macroeconomic headwinds could potentially dampen near-term earnings per share (EPS) estimates for fiscal years 2025-2026 and affect investor sentiment. According to InvestingPro, the company maintains a "FAIR" overall financial health score and has demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns with 15 consecutive years of dividend increases, currently yielding nearly 3%.
The adjusted price target of $85.00 represents a more conservative estimate and takes into account the potential risks that could impact Starbucks’ financial performance in the near future. This new target reflects Baird’s revised expectations for the company’s stock value, considering the current economic environment and the company’s recent performance indicators.
Starbucks Corporation, headquartered in Seattle, is a global coffeehouse chain and has been a mainstay for coffee enthusiasts worldwide. The company has been undergoing a series of strategic changes aimed at revitalizing its business and sustaining growth amidst a competitive and ever-changing market landscape.
In other recent news, Starbucks announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.61 per share, which will be paid on May 30, 2025, to shareholders on record as of May 16, 2025. This decision highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders. Meanwhile, Bernstein SocGen Group has adjusted its outlook on Starbucks, reducing the price target from $115.00 to $105.00, while maintaining an Outperform rating. This change comes amid concerns about new reciprocal tariffs and their impact on Starbucks’ turnaround strategy.
In another development, Jefferies has reaffirmed its Underperform rating on Starbucks with a price target of $76.00, citing a cautious outlook from CEO Brian Niccol during the recent Annual Shareholder meeting. The firm’s analysts have revised their earnings estimates, projecting fiscal year 2027 earnings per share at $4.05, below the consensus. At the 2025 Annual Meeting, Starbucks shareholders voted on various proposals, electing all nine director nominees and ratifying Deloitte & Touche LLP as the company’s independent auditor.
Additionally, Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol introduced the "Back to Starbucks" business plan, aiming to enhance the customer experience and improve store operations. This strategy focuses on creating a community coffeehouse atmosphere and optimizing retail job experiences. Starbucks is also minimizing discount-driven offers and simplifying its menu as part of this initiative, with positive initial responses noted.
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