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On Wednesday, Stephens analyst adjusted the price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) shares to $60.00, down from the previous $61.00, while maintaining an Equal Weight rating on the stock. The revision followed Chipotle’s fourth-quarter earnings report for 2024, which revealed mixed results, including a slight miss on same-store sales but better-than-expected outcomes in unit development, margins, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). According to InvestingPro data, Chipotle maintains excellent financial health with a perfect Piotroski Score of 9 and an overall financial health rating of "GREAT."
Chipotle’s performance in the restaurant industry has been compared to its peers, with the company historically achieving robust traffic growth. Despite this, Chipotle is experiencing a slowdown in transaction trends during the first half of 2025, attributed to a combination of January weather challenges, year-over-year comparisons, and unfavorable calendar shifts. Nevertheless, the analyst believes that Chipotle still possesses one of the most reliable prospects for positive customer traffic within its industry for the fiscal year 2025. The company’s revenue growth remains strong at 15.19%, supporting its market position. For deeper insights into Chipotle’s growth metrics and 12+ additional ProTips, consider accessing the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
The after-hours trading session indicated a roughly 5% decline in Chipotle’s share price, which the analyst suggests aligns with the stock’s current valuation. This valuation takes into account the strong full-year traffic trends against the backdrop of a slight deceleration in near-term transactions.
The new price target of $60 implies an enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA) multiple of approximately 33 times Stephens’ next twelve months (NTM) EBITDA forecast of $2,598 million. This valuation is set against Chipotle’s 10-year average trading multiple of about 31 times. The analyst’s commentary indicates a careful balancing of the factors affecting Chipotle’s stock performance and the rationale behind maintaining the Equal Weight rating alongside the adjusted price target.
In other recent news, Chipotle Mexican Grill has been a topic of discussion among several analyst firms following its fourth-quarter earnings report. Piper Sandler adjusted its outlook on Chipotle, reducing the price target to $59 while maintaining a Neutral rating. Stifel analysts also lowered their price target for Chipotle to $68, despite an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25 that slightly exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, BTIG maintained a Buy rating with a steadfast price target of $67, citing potential for mid-single digit same-store sales growth in 2025.
Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James followed suit, reducing its price target for Chipotle to $66, but maintaining an Outperform rating. The analyst noted a need to revise the 2025 earnings per share estimates due to a more cautious outlook for first-half comparable sales and margins. Finally, KeyBanc Capital Markets lowered its price target from $66.00 to $64.00 but kept an Overweight rating on the stock, expressing confidence in Chipotle’s robust digital capabilities, brand positioning, and marketing expertise.
These recent developments highlight analysts’ recalibration of their expectations for Chipotle’s performance in the upcoming quarters. Despite the adjustments in price targets and EPS estimates, the underlying belief in Chipotle’s resilience and growth potential remains steady among these analyst firms.
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