Stifel cuts First Watch stock target to $17, maintains hold

Published 07/05/2025, 17:24
Stifel cuts First Watch stock target to $17, maintains hold

On Wednesday, Stifel analysts adjusted their outlook on First Watch (NASDAQ:FWRG) by reducing the price target to $17.00 from the previous $18.00, while continuing to recommend a Hold rating on the shares. The revision follows First Watch’s disclosure of weaker-than-expected first-quarter comparable sales, also known as comps. According to InvestingPro data, four analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward, with price targets now ranging from $18 to $28.

First Watch has kept its revenue forecast for the full year despite the softer first-quarter performance, citing improvements in traffic trends during March and April. However, the company significantly lowered its projections for EBITDA, which currently stands at $95.11 million, due to rising costs. Analysts at Stifel noted that the substantial cut in EBITDA guidance, along with a top-line outlook that seems optimistic, sparked a sharp decline in First Watch’s stock price. InvestingPro data reveals the stock has fallen 13.19% in the past week alone, with concerning metrics including a high P/E ratio of 108.7 and significant debt burden.

The analysts acknowledged that First Watch saw a positive trend with an uptick in dine-in traffic in April. Nevertheless, they emphasized the need for the company to demonstrate that its marketing strategies can consistently attract customers and increase traffic without adversely affecting the average spending per customer.

Stifel’s commentary reflects a cautious stance, with the firm advising investors to remain on the sidelines until First Watch can prove the effectiveness and sustainability of its initiatives to drive traffic. They pointed out that while the recent improvements are promising, the company faces the challenge of balancing customer growth with profitability.

In other recent news, First Watch Restaurant Group (LON:RTN) Inc. reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a net loss of $829,000 and revenue of $282.2 million, which marked a 16.4% year-over-year increase. However, the earnings per share of -$0.01 fell short of the anticipated $0.04. Despite these results, the company maintains an optimistic outlook, projecting 20% revenue growth and plans to open 59-64 new restaurants in 2025. Following these earnings, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James adjusted its outlook on First Watch by reducing the price target from $25.00 to $21.00 but maintained a Strong Buy rating. Analysts at Raymond James noted that the company’s strategic initiatives, such as improved marketing and third-party delivery services, are promising despite current margin pressures. These developments come amid challenges such as high supply chain food inflation and additional tariff pressures. Nonetheless, First Watch remains committed to enhancing the customer experience and expanding its market presence.

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