Stifel cuts Matson stock price target to $130 from $160

Published 06/05/2025, 10:36
Stifel cuts Matson stock price target to $130 from $160

On Tuesday, Stifel analysts adjusted their outlook on Matson , Inc. (NYSE:MATX), reducing the price target to $130 from the previous $160 while maintaining a Hold rating on the company’s shares. According to InvestingPro data, Matson currently trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 9.9x and boasts a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating strong financial health. The company’s current market analysis suggests it is slightly undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value model. The revision follows Matson’s first-quarter earnings, which, despite showcasing sustained high freight rates in its China service and domestic trades, fell short of Stifel’s expectations.

The analysts noted that Matson is facing new challenges, including the impact of recent U.S. tariffs. These tariffs have led to a downward revision of the full-year outlook for the company, with a significant 30% drop in China volumes reported in April and anticipated near-term freight rate pressures. Despite these challenges, the company maintains strong fundamentals with a healthy 25% gross profit margin and moderate debt levels, as revealed by InvestingPro analysis. Despite these headwinds, Matson’s management has expressed confidence in the company’s ability to adapt swiftly to changing conditions. They highlighted their robust transshipment partnerships and commitment to maintaining reliable supply chain operations without resorting to blank sailings.

Stifel’s report also touched upon the potential for a demand spike due to restocking needs, which could benefit Matson. However, the analysts pointed out that the timing of such a spike is uncertain, especially in the face of a potential broader economic downturn. Stifel’s analysts believe Matson is still positioned to generate a normalized free cash flow (FCF) of approximately $13 per share. This figure underpins their revised price target for the company’s stock.

The report concluded with an emphasis on the company’s solid customer relationships and strategic flexibility, which are seen as critical factors for Matson in navigating the current market landscape. With a robust return on equity of 19% and consistent dividend payments for 53 consecutive years, Matson demonstrates remarkable financial resilience. For deeper insights into Matson’s financial health and growth prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access 10+ additional ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics in the detailed Pro Research Report.

In other recent news, Matson Inc. reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, surpassing earnings expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.18, significantly higher than the forecasted $1.71. However, revenue for the quarter fell slightly short of expectations at $782 million. Despite the earnings beat, the company’s stock experienced a decline in after-hours trading, reflecting investor concerns over the company’s cautious outlook for future quarters. Matson anticipates lower container volumes and freight rates in the second quarter of 2025, amidst ongoing global trade uncertainties. The company reported a substantial increase in consolidated operating income, rising by $45.2 million year-over-year to $82.1 million, and a net income increase of 100.3% to $72.3 million. Analysts have noted Matson’s strategic flexibility in navigating these challenges, with the company focusing on maintaining shareholder value through dividends and share repurchases. The company also highlighted its expansion efforts in Vietnam, introducing a new direct service connecting Ho Chi Minh to its existing routes, reflecting its adaptability in response to shifting market dynamics.

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