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On Thursday, Stifel analyst Brad Reback adjusted the price target for MongoDB (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MDB) stock, reducing it to $340 from the previous $425 while retaining a Buy rating on the shares. According to InvestingPro data, MongoDB’s stock currently trades at $264, with analyst targets ranging from $180 to $520. The reassessment came after MongoDB reported financial results that exceeded expectations in some areas but offered a revenue forecast for fiscal year 2026 that fell short of analysts’ predictions.
MongoDB’s recent earnings report showed a solid performance, with Atlas (NYSE:ATCO), its database service, and operating margins surpassing projections by approximately 4-5% and over 900 basis points, respectively. The company maintains strong financial health with a current ratio of 5.2 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet. Despite these strong results, the company’s stock experienced a significant drop of about 15% in after-hours trading. This decline was attributed to the revenue guidance for FY26, which was set at roughly $2.26 billion, below the expected $2.33 billion. The company achieved 19.2% revenue growth in the last twelve months, reaching $2 billion.
The guidance shortfall is believed to be entirely due to the enterprise agreement (EA) and non-Atlas segments, as management forecasted a high-single-digit year-over-year decline. This is in contrast to consensus estimates that anticipated modest growth, taking into account $50 million in multi-year renewal headwinds.
However, MongoDB’s management pointed out that Atlas’s consumption trends have exceeded expectations and remained stable year-over-year in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of FY26. This was partly due to changes in sales compensation, leading to a better cohort of workloads that are expected to drive future consumption growth.
Reback highlighted the positive aspects of MongoDB’s business, including stabilizing Atlas consumption and improved sales execution, which are generating a strong set of workloads poised for expansion. Additionally, the company has a growing array of core and emerging product drivers. Based on these factors, Stifel anticipates that Atlas will continue to achieve revenue growth of over 20% in the coming years, allowing MongoDB to maintain high-teens revenue growth overall.
In other recent news, MongoDB reported fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed market expectations, with a non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.28, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $0.66. The company’s revenue for the quarter reached $548.4 million, exceeding the anticipated $519.6 million and marking a year-over-year increase of 20%. Despite these strong figures, MongoDB’s guidance for fiscal year 2026 was lower than expected, projecting a non-GAAP EPS between $2.44 and $2.62, below the consensus estimate of $3.35. The company also completed the acquisition of Voyage AI for $220 million, maintaining its debt-free status after redeeming its 2026 convertible notes.
Analysts have adjusted their outlooks in response to these developments. DA Davidson reduced MongoDB’s price target from $360 to $275, while maintaining a Buy rating, citing a conservative forecast for FY26. Similarly, Citizens JMP cut the price target to $345 from $380, keeping a Market Outperform rating. BofA Securities also revised its price target down to $286 from $420, yet continued to endorse the stock with a Buy rating. Goldman Sachs adjusted its price target to $335 from $390, reaffirming a Buy rating as well.
MongoDB’s Atlas platform, a significant revenue driver, saw a 24% year-over-year growth, although its growth rate is expected to slow to around 21% in the upcoming year. The company’s non-Atlas offerings also performed well, with multi-year term licenses contributing positively. However, MongoDB anticipates a $50 million headwind from these licenses, influencing its cautious guidance for FY26. Despite the stock’s 16% decline in aftermarket trading following the guidance announcement, analysts remain optimistic about MongoDB’s long-term growth potential, particularly in the Atlas segment.
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