Stifel cuts Tesla stock price target to $455, maintains Buy rating

On Monday, Stifel analysts adjusted their outlook on Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA), currently trading at $263.55, reducing the price target to $455 from the previous $474, while still upholding a Buy rating. The revision comes as the firm anticipates a dip in near-term delivery numbers owing to the introduction of the new Model Y, which is referred to as Juniper, and challenges stemming from a group critical of CEO Elon Musk. According to InvestingPro data, 13 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward for the upcoming period.

The analysts noted a significant drop in Tesla’s favorability among Democrats, based on data from the Stifel Think Tank Group. This decline in favorability is expected to pose hurdles for sales in the near future. In light of these factors, Stifel has updated its sales forecasts to account for anticipated lower near-term sales, prompting the adjustment of the price target. The company’s stock has already experienced significant volatility this year, with a -34.74% year-to-date return.

Despite the reduction in the near-term outlook and the resulting price target cut, Stifel’s analysts express a continued positive stance on Tesla’s medium- to long-term potential. They acknowledge that while share price volatility is likely to continue in the short term, their long-term view on the company remains optimistic.

The analysts commented on the situation, stating, "We are updating our forecasts to reflect lower near-term sales, and trimming our target price to $455 from $474. We expect share price volatility to persist in the near term, but remain optimistic on TSLA’s medium- to long-term prospects and reiterate our Buy."

Investors and market watchers will be keeping an eye on Tesla’s stock performance and its ability to navigate the challenges highlighted by Stifel, as well as its efforts to maintain growth momentum amidst evolving market dynamics.

In other recent news, Tesla has been in the spotlight for several developments. RBC Capital has maintained its Outperform rating on Tesla with a price target of $320, despite expectations of lower delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2025. Analysts at Stifel predict Tesla will deliver 364,000 vehicles, falling short of the 398,000 expected by Visible Alpha. This shortfall is attributed to production halts for a Model Y refresh and potential buyers delaying purchases for a new model release. Meanwhile, Tesla’s performance in China is under pressure, with a projected 47.8% decrease in deliveries for the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. In Europe, deliveries are expected to drop by 19.9% from the fourth quarter of 2024. Gene Munster from Deep Water Management suggests that Tesla’s delivery estimates for 2025 will likely be revised downwards, with full-year deliveries potentially decreasing by about 5% year-on-year. Additionally, Tesla’s shares recently experienced a decline in premarket trading following the imposition of a 25% tariff on auto imports by the US government.

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