Stifel cuts Vail Resorts stock price target to $183 from $217

On Thursday, Stifel analysts revised their price target for Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) stock, lowering it to $183.00 from the previous $217.00, while still maintaining a Buy rating on the shares. The revision comes as the stock trades near its 52-week low of $129.85, having declined nearly 25% year-to-date. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a Fair Value that suggests upside potential from current levels. According to Stifel’s Jeffrey Stantial, the adjustment reflects concerns over the company’s financial performance in the face of favorable conditions not translating to expected financial gains. The analyst pointed out that, despite potential for Vail Resorts to hit the lower end of its guidance as previously suggested, the market might react negatively due to limited information on soft window ticket sales.

Stantial’s commentary highlighted that as the ski season concludes, attention is turning to pass sales for the 2025/26 season. Vail Resorts management reported a slight decline in pass units sold by the April deadline, which still resulted in an increase in sales revenue. This is attributed to a 7% price increase on early bird pricing for Epic and Epic Local passes. The company has demonstrated resilient financial performance with a 3.57% revenue growth over the last twelve months and maintains an attractive 6.4% dividend yield. InvestingPro subscribers can access 8 additional key insights about Vail Resorts’ financial health and growth prospects. However, management has not provided insights on how broader economic uncertainties might impact future pass sales, especially given that the first pass sales deadline on April 13 was only related to buddy ticket eligibility and offered limited data.

The analyst mentioned that Vail Resorts had initially expected a return to growth in pass sales units this season. Still, the shortfall in window ticket sales and uncertainties following Liberation Day could potentially lead to another season of subdued pass sales. Nonetheless, it is still early in the selling season, and there is time for consumer confidence to potentially improve before pass sales conclude in December. With a P/E ratio of 20.44x and an overall Financial Health Score of "FAIR" according to InvestingPro, investors can access comprehensive analysis and the detailed Pro Research Report covering Vail Resorts’ long-term prospects and valuation metrics.

In other recent news, Vail Resorts has reported several developments that may interest investors. Analysts from Truist Securities highlighted the company’s recent earnings success, noting that Vail Resorts exceeded consensus estimates for two consecutive quarters, despite foreign exchange headwinds impacting full-year EBITDA forecasts. Meanwhile, Jefferies analyst David Katz adjusted Vail Resorts’ price target to $173, maintaining a Hold rating, following the company’s strong second-quarter results. Katz emphasized the unpredictability of weather as a risk factor and noted the potential long-term value of the company’s customer database.

Additionally, Stifel analysts reiterated a Buy rating with a $217 price target, expressing confidence in Vail Resorts’ long-term strategy and positive developments in its rental service. Stifel pointed out a modest 2% increase in Resort Adjusted EBITDA, with management highlighting shifts in guest visitation patterns. On the other hand, BofA Securities reduced its price target to $160, citing late-season risks and a decline in skier visits, with concerns over broader economic uncertainties.

Vail Resorts’ management remains optimistic about maintaining organic growth, supported by a $100 million resource efficiency initiative. As the company navigates external pressures such as currency fluctuations and labor disputes, its upcoming earnings reports and strategic initiatives will continue to be closely monitored by investors and analysts alike.

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