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On Tuesday, Stifel analysts reinforced their confidence in Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) by maintaining a Buy rating and a price target of $217.00. The endorsement comes after the company’s second-quarter financial results showed a modest 2% increase in Resort Adjusted EBITDA to $817.46 million, surpassing consensus expectations. The company, currently valued at $6.08 billion, has seen its stock trading near its 52-week low of $151.99. According to InvestingPro analysis, Vail Resorts appears slightly undervalued at current levels. However, Vail Resorts adjusted its Resort Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint down by 1%, attributing the revision entirely to foreign exchange impacts.
The company’s management has highlighted a structural shift in the pattern of destination guest visitation, now trending towards the latter part of the season, while local skier behavior remains consistent. Despite potential market volatility in the consumer discretionary sector due to Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL)’ comments on consumer softness, Stifel anticipates Vail Resorts’ stock will outperform, given the negative market sentiment prior to the earnings report and positive remarks on stable booking trends. Notably, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a healthy 5.78% dividend yield and has raised its dividend for three consecutive years, potentially providing income support during market volatility.
Looking forward, Stifel suggests that Vail Resorts’ stock valuation could see further normalization if the late-season shift in destination visitation is proven and if there is a return to growth in Epic Pass sales. These factors will be closely monitored in the third quarter. Stifel also notes the upcoming Vail Resorts Investor Conference scheduled for March 19, 2025, as an event that may provide additional strategic insights.
Stifel has updated its financial model for Vail Resorts, primarily to account for the effects of foreign exchange rates, but the firm’s price target remains unchanged at $217.00. This reiteration of a Buy rating indicates Stifel’s continued optimism about the company’s performance and its potential catalysts for growth in the near term.
In other recent news, Vail Resorts reported strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $6.56, exceeding the forecasted $6.30, and revenue meeting expectations at $1.14 billion. The company’s Resort Reported EBITDA also surpassed expectations, reaching $459.7 million, up from $425 million the previous year. Despite these positive results, Jefferies analyst David Katz lowered the price target for Vail Resorts to $173 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing the company’s cautious full-year outlook and the unpredictability of weather conditions as influencing factors. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities also adjusted its price target to $215 from $227 but maintained an Outperform rating, noting a slowdown in visitation in February and projecting a decline in skier visits for the third quarter. BofA Securities maintained a Neutral rating with a price target of $185, acknowledging the earnings beat but highlighting broader market conditions affecting investor sentiment. Vail Resorts reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 Resort EBITDA target at $866 million, excluding foreign exchange impacts, and expects full-year net income to range between $257 million and $309 million. These recent developments reflect a mix of strong financial performance and cautious outlooks from analysts, with an emphasis on the company’s strategic positioning and market trends.
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