Stifel maintains buy rating on Couchbase stock amid strong ARR growth

Published 04/06/2025, 11:48
Stifel maintains buy rating on Couchbase stock amid strong ARR growth

On Wednesday, Stifel analysts reiterated their Buy rating for Couchbase Inc (NASDAQ:BASE) stock, maintaining a price target of $22.00. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $16 to $26, with the company currently valued at approximately $1 billion market capitalization. The decision follows Couchbase’s recent announcement of its first-quarter annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching $252.1 million, which marked the third-highest level in the company’s history. This growth reflects significant expansion activities across strategic accounts.

The company reported a net new ARR of $14.2 million, with revenue increasing by 10% year-over-year. However, revenue growth slightly lagged behind ARR due to ongoing migrations to Couchbase’s Capella, which created a temporary headwind in revenue recognition. Despite this, Couchbase’s flexible deployment model and differentiated mobile and edge capabilities are expected to support mid-to-high teens ARR growth as AI adoption progresses.

New logo momentum softened during the quarter, with Capella customer count declining by one sequentially. This follows net additions of 10 and 27 in the previous two quarters. The total customer count also decreased by 10, attributed to churn in low-dollar customer starter packs introduced last year.

Couchbase’s focus on NoSQL technology and Capella adoption positions the company for continued growth. However, analysts noted that a reacceleration in Capella migrations and customer acquisition will likely be necessary to maintain momentum.

Couchbase remains optimistic about its future, leveraging its strategic expansions and technological advancements to drive growth in the evolving AI landscape. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock appears to be trading above its intrinsic value. Subscribers can access 7 additional ProTips and a comprehensive Pro Research Report, part of InvestingPro’s coverage of over 1,400 US stocks.

In other recent news, Couchbase Inc. reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, revealing revenue of $56.5 million, which exceeded the forecast of $55.59 million. Despite missing the earnings per share (EPS) forecast with a result of -0.33 compared to the anticipated -0.08, the company experienced a 10% year-over-year revenue growth. Couchbase’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $252.1 million, marking a 21% increase year-over-year. The company’s focus on its Capella platform contributed significantly to this growth, with Capella ARR increasing by 84% year-over-year.

Analysts have varied perspectives on Couchbase’s performance. DA Davidson maintained a Buy rating with a $25 target, citing the company’s strong start to the fiscal year and positive ARR growth. In contrast, Goldman Sachs reiterated a Sell rating with a $16 target, expressing concerns over Couchbase’s competition and path to achieving positive operating margins. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) raised its price target to $19 from $18, maintaining an Equalweight rating, and noted the acceleration in net new ARR growth. Couchbase has maintained its full-year revenue guidance, projecting ARR growth of 18% for fiscal year 2026.

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