Stifel maintains buy rating on Latham Group shares, target at $8.00

Published 05/03/2025, 16:20
Stifel maintains buy rating on Latham Group shares, target at $8.00

On Wednesday, Stifel analysts maintained a Buy rating on Latham Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIM) with a steady price target of $8.00. The firm’s analysts upheld their optimistic stance following Latham’s fourth quarter earnings for the fiscal year 2024, which exhibited a combination of stronger revenue but a dip in EBITDA. Currently trading at $7.19, the stock has shown significant volatility, with a remarkable 79% return over the past year according to InvestingPro data. Despite this mixed performance, the initial guidance for fiscal year 2025 surpassed Stifel’s prior estimates, projecting revenues between $535 million and $565 million, exceeding their forecast of $520 million, and EBITDA in the range of $90 million to $100 million, above the $86 million previously anticipated.

The company’s guidance already accounts for the current tariff impacts from China but does not factor in any additional actions that might arise concerning Canada and Mexico. It also does not include potential price adjustments. With a current EBITDA of $65.54 million and an InvestingPro Financial Health Score rated as ’FAIR’, the company shows stable fundamentals. Stifel now estimates Latham’s EBITDA for FY25 at $90 million, with a revenue increase of 5%, which includes 1% of underlying revenue growth, aligning with the lower end of the company’s provided guidance. For deeper insights into Latham’s financial health and growth prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access 12+ additional exclusive ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics.

Stifel’s analysts expressed confidence in Latham’s capacity to leverage growth within the pool category, particularly in a more normalized market environment. With a current ratio of 2.44 and liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations, the company maintains a strong financial position. They anticipate that the company’s robust performance will continue, driving investor enthusiasm and potentially leading to an uptick in share prices. Despite the added uncertainty and the potential for fourth-quarter earnings to reset expectations, the analysts believe that the financial figures and share valuation are likely to ascend. Access Latham’s complete Pro Research Report and detailed financial analysis through InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Latham Group reported its Q4 2024 earnings, revealing a larger-than-expected loss with an EPS of -$0.25, missing the forecast of -$0.11. However, the company’s revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $87.27 million against a forecast of $85.17 million. Despite the earnings miss, Latham Group’s stock experienced a significant surge in after-hours trading. The company also reported a full-year net sales decline of 10% compared to 2023, with total net sales of $509 million. Latham Group’s gross margin improved to 30.2% from 27% in the previous year, demonstrating resilience amid a challenging market environment. Looking ahead, the company projects net sales between $535 million and $565 million for 2025, suggesting potential growth. Additionally, Latham anticipates adjusted EBITDA to grow by 12-25%, reaching $90-$100 million. These developments reflect the company’s focus on expanding its market share, particularly in the Sand States, and enhancing operational efficiencies.

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