Stifel maintains Chipotle stock Buy rating, $65 target amid sales dip

On Thursday, Stifel analysts upheld their Buy rating and $65.00 price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) shares, aligning with the broader analyst consensus that remains bullish on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $46 to $71, with the company currently trading at a P/E ratio of 43.36x. The firm’s analysts, led by Chris O’Cull, addressed the company’s recent performance, noting Chipotle’s same-restaurant sales (SRS) decreased by 0.4%, which aligned closely with Stifel’s own projections and marked the first negative quarterly comp result since the fourth quarter of 2016, excluding the COVID-impacted second quarter of 2020.

Chipotle has adjusted its full-year comp guidance to low-single digits (LSD), down from its previous low-to-mid-single digits (L-MSD) forecast, and anticipates a 3.0% decline in second-quarter comps, contrasting with Wall Street’s expectations of a 1.3% increase. This revision comes as the company’s survey research suggested that consumers are looking to spend less and save more due to economic uncertainties. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains strong financial health with a GOOD overall score and robust liquidity metrics, including a current ratio of 1.52.

In reaction to the softer consumer spending environment, Chipotle has revealed plans to boost marketing efforts over the summer and launch a new menu item aimed at reinvigorating sales. Stifel’s analysts expressed optimism regarding Chipotle’s proactive strategy to address the current market challenges. They anticipate that Chipotle will be able to recover its sales momentum, especially as the planned initiatives take effect.

Furthermore, Stifel analysts expect that other restaurants will likely report weaker first-quarter comps in the weeks ahead. They emphasized that Chipotle’s swift response to the changing consumer landscape positions the company favorably for a rebound in sales as it implements its new marketing and menu strategies. With revenue growth of 14.61% over the last twelve months and strong returns on equity, InvestingPro analysis reveals 12+ additional key insights about Chipotle’s financial position and growth prospects, available exclusively to subscribers through the comprehensive Pro Research Report.

In other recent news, Chipotle Mexican Grill’s first-quarter results for 2025 revealed a decrease in same-store sales growth by 0.4%, falling short of expectations. The company has adjusted its 2025 guidance to low single digits, reflecting the broader economic challenges. Despite this, Chipotle managed to exceed earnings per share estimates with a result of $0.29, slightly above expectations due to reduced costs and expenses. Analysts have mixed views on Chipotle’s prospects, with RBC Capital Markets and Bernstein maintaining an Outperform rating, setting the price target at $60. However, Piper Sandler and TD Cowen have reduced their price targets to $52 and $57, respectively, citing ongoing consumer spending declines. BMO Capital Markets kept a Market Perform rating with a $56 target, acknowledging the impact of consumer uncertainty on Chipotle’s performance. The introduction of new menu items, such as the Honey Chicken, is expected to boost customer traffic by 100-200 basis points. Chipotle’s management remains optimistic about a recovery in transaction growth later in the year, provided the economic environment stabilizes.

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