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On Tuesday, Stifel analysts revised their outlook on Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) stock, reducing the price target to $159 from the previous $167 while maintaining a Hold rating on the shares. The adjustment reflects a more cautious stance on the company's financial performance, with Stifel's forecasts indicating year-over-year growth in the third fiscal quarter of 2025.
The firm's estimates include non-GAAP EPS of $3.31, a 12% increase year-over-year, on net bookings of $2.456 billion, a 4% rise. These projections position Stifel slightly below the consensus, which stands at $3.42 for EPS and $2.514 billion for net bookings. Stifel's analysts cite modest risk to Street numbers due to weaker performance for EA Sports FC 25 compared to last year's edition, according to third-party data.
Stifel's model anticipates growth for EA's Live Services, excluding mobile, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of net bookings. Additionally, a stronger front line release schedule is expected to drive full game sales up by 3%. However, these positive factors are partially offset by the negative impact of discontinuing select mobile titles, such as MLB Tap Sports Baseball and Kim Kardashian: Hollywood.
In a review of their model, Stifel made modest adjustments to their fiscal year 2025 estimates, now forecasting non-GAAP EPS at $7.62, up 10% on net bookings of $7.617 billion, a 3% increase. These revised figures reflect lowered assumptions for EA FC 25 full game unit sales and Ultimate Team, balanced by higher unit estimates for College Football 25, which has set records as the best-selling sports title in U.S. history according to Circana.
The decision to downgrade EA to Hold was recently made based on several factors: uncertainty around the next Battlefield release, a challenging comparison for College Football in fiscal year 2026, and a weaker launch for Dragon Age: The Veilguard. Since mid-December, EA's share price has dropped by 8%, a decline that Stifel attributes to the weaker performance data for EA Sports FC 25, among other factors. Despite a longer-term positive outlook on Electronic Arts, Stifel sees no clear catalyst driving momentum into the calendar year 2025.
The new price target of $159 per share is based on a multiple of 19.0 times the fiscal year 2026 estimated non-GAAP EPS, aligning more closely with the stock's five-year average multiple of 19.3 times, using next twelve months estimates, and suggests a potential upside of over 10% from last Friday's closing price.
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