Sunrun stock rating upgraded by Jefferies as IRA outcome favors TPOs

Published 09/07/2025, 11:44
Sunrun stock rating upgraded by Jefferies as IRA outcome favors TPOs

Investing.com - Jefferies has upgraded Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) from Underperform to Hold and raised its price target to $11.00 from $5.00 following the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The stock, currently trading at $9.84, has shown strong momentum with a 9.45% gain over the past week, according to InvestingPro data.

The research firm acknowledged it "got it wrong" in its previous downgrade last month when the Investment Reduction Act (IRA) outcome appeared uncertain. Jefferies now views the finalized IRA policy as "more than a life-line" for Sunrun, providing visibility into the next several years after previous bill iterations had been "overly punitive" on residential solar. InvestingPro analysis reveals significant challenges ahead, with the company operating under a substantial debt burden and rapidly burning through cash - two of 14 key insights available to Pro subscribers.

The OBBBA allows for credits on solar leases through 2027 and storage through 2035, which Jefferies considers favorable for third-party ownership (TPO) companies like Sunrun. With the consumer credit 25D set to expire at year-end, the firm expects lease/power purchase agreements—Sunrun’s core business—to gain further market share.

Despite upgrading Sunrun, Jefferies remains cautious on the U.S. residential solar market broadly, projecting it could decline by double-digits in 2026 as the 25D expiration takes effect and residential weakness persists. The firm’s revised estimates still imply just a flat growth rate (less than 1% CAGR) through 2031, with solar installation forecasts 5-10% below consensus despite raising estimates by 20-30%.

Jefferies notes some IRA uncertainty persists given President Trump’s recent Executive Order, identifying potential risks to the 5% rule qualification for residential solar given limited visibility into four years’ worth of contracts. With analyst price targets ranging from $4 to $21, investors seeking deeper insights can access comprehensive financial analysis and Fair Value estimates through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports, available for over 1,400 US stocks.

In other recent news, Sunrun Inc . has seen significant developments impacting its business and stock performance. KeyBanc upgraded Sunrun’s stock rating from Underweight to Sector Weight, following a regulatory modification that preserved Investment Tax Credit benefits for solar leasing, a crucial element of Sunrun’s business model. This change, along with ongoing market consolidation, is expected to provide Sunrun with stability in the near term. Meanwhile, Citi analysts have noted positive momentum for Sunrun following the signing of the reconciliation bill, which has created a more favorable environment for residential solar companies. However, RBC Capital Markets downgraded Sunrun’s stock from Outperform to Sector Perform due to concerns over potential changes to residential solar tax credits, which could challenge Sunrun’s cash generation capabilities.

In corporate governance news, Sunrun’s stockholders recently voted to re-elect board members and approve executive compensation at the company’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders. The meeting also ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, stockholders voted in favor of amending and restating the Sunrun Inc. 2015 Equity Incentive Plan, allowing continued stock-based compensation for employees. These developments reflect ongoing support for Sunrun’s governance and compensation strategies.

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