On Monday, BofA Securities issued a downgrade for Tata Motors Ltd (NS:TAMO). (TTMT:IN) from "Buy" to "Neutral," alongside a significant reduction in the price target to INR920.00 from the previous INR1,280.00. The revision follows Tata Motors (NYSE:TTM)' recent financial performance, which did not meet expectations, largely attributed to its Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) division.
The company's consolidated EBITDA stood at Rs121.6 billion, marking a year-over-year decrease of 12%, which fell short of BofA Securities' estimate of Rs136 billion. JLR's EBIT margin was reported at 5%, compared to the anticipated 7.1%, decreasing by 3.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter.
This drop was mainly due to operational leverage effects, with volumes declining by 11% quarter-over-quarter, and increased variable and fixed marketing expenditures.
Tata Motors experienced a negative free cash flow (FCF) of £256 million in the second quarter, primarily because of working capital challenges. However, this is expected to reverse in the second half of the year. Despite the setback, the company maintains its target for JLR to reach a net cash position by the end of the fiscal year 2025, with current net debt standing at £1.2 billion.
The second quarter's results were impacted by production disruptions and a hold off of 6,000 vehicles due to quality control measures. Although the negative outcome of the quarter was somewhat anticipated, the extent of the miss was considerable. Management has reaffirmed its guidance for a JLR EBIT margin of 8.5% by fiscal year 2025, but this implies a significant recovery in the second half of the year to approximately 10%.
BofA Securities has expressed concerns regarding JLR's outlook, particularly due to global macroeconomic challenges and demand uncertainties, especially in key markets such as China and the European Union. The competitive environment is intensifying, and JLR's strategy for product mix and pricing improvement is now facing obstacles amid softening demand.
Additionally, the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) requires substantial investment, alongside continued spending on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
In light of these factors, BofA Securities has reduced its consolidated earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Tata Motors by 12-14%, with the JLR margin projection adjusted to around 8% from the previously estimated range of 8.5-9%.
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