TD Cowen downgrades Valero Energy stock to Hold on valuation concerns

Published 22/07/2025, 11:34
TD Cowen downgrades Valero Energy stock to Hold on valuation concerns

Investing.com - TD Cowen downgraded Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) from Buy to Hold on Tuesday, while raising its price target to $140.00 from $118.00. The energy giant, currently valued at $45.8 billion, has seen its stock trade near all-time highs with a P/E ratio of 50.2x, which InvestingPro data indicates is notably high for the sector.

The research firm noted that refining stocks have risen 19% year-to-date, with Valero showing even stronger performance. According to InvestingPro data, Valero shares have actually gained 21.3% year-to-date after reaching all-time highs early in the year, with analyst targets ranging from $118 to $186.

TD Cowen pointed out that Valero is the second-strongest performer in its peer group since 2022, climbing 90%. The firm believes the stock is now pricing in approximately $7.30/bbl EBITDA/bbl, which would represent the second-highest earnings on record excluding the 2022-2023 highs driven by the Russia-Ukraine war.

The downgrade reflects TD Cowen’s view that Valero shares could face "stabilization-to-downside" given the bullishness already reflected in the stock price and limited underlying earnings growth potential.

TD Cowen values Valero based on net present value of free cash flow with 2026 as a mid-cycle free cash flow year, while acknowledging that Valero’s share repurchase program could improve free cash flow per share over time.

In other recent news, Valero Energy has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.13 per share, payable to shareholders on September 2, 2025. Wolfe Research recently downgraded Valero Energy from Outperform to Peerperform, citing valuation concerns after a strong performance this year. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) has raised its price target for Valero Energy to $168, maintaining an Overweight rating due to improved refining volumes and margins. UBS has also increased its price target to $164, highlighting positive refining performance and projecting improved utilization in the coming quarters. Evercore ISI initiated coverage of Valero Energy with an In Line rating and a $135 price target, noting the company’s operational strengths and competitive positioning. Despite concerns about long-term fuel demand, Evercore suggests these fears may be overstated. The firm’s analysis points to Valero’s strong market position and potential for stable returns. These developments provide investors with a range of perspectives on Valero’s financial outlook and market positioning.

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