TD Cowen holds Ford stock with $10 target post Q1 results

On Tuesday, TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on Ford stock (NYSE:F), with a consistent price target of $10.00. The firm’s decision followed Ford’s announcement to withdraw its 2025 financial guidance due to tariff-related uncertainties. Despite this, Ford reported a strong first quarter, with adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $1.0 billion, surpassing the estimated $0.2 billion, indicating improved cost execution. The automotive giant, currently valued at $42 billion, trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 7.1x and offers a substantial 7.4% dividend yield. According to InvestingPro analysis, Ford maintains a GOOD financial health score, with 12 key insights available to subscribers.

TD Cowen noted the withdrawal of Ford’s 2025 guidance but acknowledged the company’s first quarter as showing promising signs. The analyst from TD Cowen highlighted that Ford’s current outlook for SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and pricing scenarios aligns with their own projections. Additionally, the impact of gross tariffs was less intense than what TD Cowen had initially modeled. With annual revenue of $185 billion and EBITDA of $11.1 billion, Ford demonstrates significant operational scale. Dive deeper into Ford’s fundamentals with InvestingPro’s comprehensive research report, part of its coverage of 1,400+ US stocks.

The report also touched upon interesting developments in Ford’s advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles (AV), though specifics were not provided. Despite lowering the expected adjusted EBIT for 2025 to $6.8 billion from $7.4 billion to reflect the first quarter’s performance and the quantified impact of tariffs, TD Cowen chose to maintain the $10 price target. This decision was justified by the application of higher target multiples, which reflect Ford’s progress in cost management during the quarter. The multiples were adjusted to 7.0 times price-to-earnings (P/E) from the previous 6.0 times, and to 6.2 times blended enterprise value/EBITDA from 5.2 times. Analyst price targets for Ford currently range from $7 to $17, reflecting diverse views on the company’s prospects.

TD Cowen also mentioned that their long-term estimates for Ford, spanning from 2028 to 2030, have not been significantly altered following the first-quarter results. The firm’s reiteration of the Hold rating and price target signals a cautious but stable outlook for Ford stock moving forward. The company’s current market price aligns closely with its InvestingPro Fair Value, suggesting a balanced valuation at current levels.

In other recent news, Ford Motor Company reported a significant earnings beat for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings per share of $0.14, surpassing the forecasted loss of $0.02. The company achieved revenue of $41 billion, exceeding the expected $38.15 billion, despite a 5% year-over-year decline. Ford’s strong performance was attributed to cost improvements, warranty savings, and successful product launches, particularly in its Model E division. However, Ford has suspended its full-year 2025 financial guidance due to uncertainties related to tariffs, which are expected to have a gross EBIT impact of $2.5 billion.

Analyst firms have responded to these developments with varied outlooks. JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating for Ford, citing strong first-quarter results and a favorable position regarding tariff costs compared to competitors. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) raised its price target for Ford from $7 to $9, maintaining a Hold rating, and noted Ford’s resilience in managing tariff impacts. Meanwhile, Bank of America reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $14 price target, despite downgrading Ford’s credit rating due to tariff cost pressures. These recent developments highlight the challenges and opportunities Ford faces as it navigates a volatile economic and regulatory environment.

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